Poker Betting Strategy
*This is Part I of a Two Part article referring mostly to tournament play.*First, we learn what beats what...yeah, we all started there. Then, we read a book that tells us that following every bit of advise will make us rich. Then we start putting that in effect and with a bit of time and effort we become complete players. Right? Wrong!
Some of the better online play, that I see, comes with the worst betting you can imagine. Some of it is just stupid where a player takes the absolute nuts (best possible hand), and goes all in on a modest pot. But, most of the betting mistakes aren't quite as obvious. And identifying those mistakes comes with a whole different method of analysis.
Empirical analysis comes every time the dealer assigns the winner. There is no argument or alternative. Betting analysis is conjectural. Experience helps but it must be valid experience being used in a timely manner. You played this hand...you won...did you optimize your profits? Could one have bet differently and made a better profit? In limit, would the check-raise have made one more money?
All these 'answers' are guesstimates. And if you aren't observing every player's tendencies, you are just about guaranteed you'll bet wrong. And, I bet wrong - every session - ring (live game) or tournament. Betting is a coulda-shoulda-woulda world.
If you follow stocks or follow the market, there is a part of every press release called ‘boilerplate'. It goes along the lines of ‘past performance is no indication of...yada...yada...observations are based on the best information at the moment but can be affected by...yada...yada...yada'. If we did that at poker, we'd play three hands an hour. But all that silliness applies every time we reach for our chips or mouse over to the slider.
What do you bet with your tier one hands? If you have a quick answer you are betting a readable pattern. The exception to this is if you always do four times the BB (or the strong raise bet that the table has established) with all types of hands - which doesn't provide the typical read.
Do you have a standard follow-though bet? (See the above). And judge the flop and number of callers before you rush to follow through. Normally, you want to make the follow through but you also want to evaluate the players calling and how you think people evaluate your table presence.
When you see a player with an aggressive posture do you try to let him do your betting for you? This is the only time slow play makes any sense. And, if the board is fairly coordinated, you should then ignore your slow play potential.
Do you use blocking bets (1) on an aggressive table with a good draw? To few players play enough blocking bets. It will often let you see the river without another bet. And it helps hide your actual draws when they do hit.
Do you use your stack properly when the blinds become important? I'd call this my biggest personal weakness. Almost every hand will see limpers in online play. It is easy to use a big stack against a good player. It is almost impossible to scare out those modest pocket pairs or second pairs in the hands of a calling station in a contested pot.
Do you leave pot odds (2) for the callers when you have top pair and top kicker or similar hands? You may get away with a bit of this on an uncoordinated board but it is still dangerous - drawing to that weak kicker is 'annoying' to say the least and bottom two or runner-runner can still become the winning hand using those seemingly weak turn and/or river cards. What range of hands can you put your opponent on? If you can't determine that, you need to consider at least a solid information bet using pot odds against the assumed -EV hand you might be putting him on.
Have you slow played and been beaten on the river by a crap hand? Slow play can kill you and seldom maximizes profits. In most online play, there is always a ‘Doubting Thomas' anyway. Often an overbet will entice a call that the normal bet will cause to fold - many will equate an overbet with a bluff.
Did you get out drawn at the river because your opponent is a bad player or because your betting never forced him out of his comfort zone? The objective of any bet is to move the other player outside his comfort zone. And the indecisive are more subject to it moving them outside their comfort zone. Like the blocking bet. your normal bet should represent a degree of strength with the passive player.
In a no-limit game, a 1x raise can be compared to kissing your sister. This type of raise doesn't define a hand and if it does you probably should have folded. This type of raise is the act of someone who has a poor understanding of outs and their relationship to pot odds. It may be a value bet in a small pot in late play.*
Don't bet the same amount when the blinds have gone up. This means more than learning to multiply. Early 4x raises mean little - they are too small a percentage of typical stack sizes. Later, as the levels go up, they are decisive plays.
Is a small win better than a nasty loss? The answer to that is obvious to everyone. Allowing a caller to take a ‘free card' can come back to haunt you. This relates to slow play which may seem the way to maximize profits but betting your good hands is the way to maximize profits
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Part II to follow.
(1) Blocking Bets: When we have a good draw with nice outs and the flop is such that a bluff or bet is likely, we will place a blocking bet. This is often what is also referred to as a 'post oak bet'. Our objective is to freeze the raiser with a bet that allows us to continue to see the next card - and possibly a second free card - with our good draw. This needs to be a believable bet based on holdings against the current community cards. The passive player will often make this bet but underbet - which telegraphs his action; inviting a raise because he has put you on a weak hand.
We can also consider this in the context of an informational bet. Both of these bets are gone into in much greater detail in any good poker book. And both are ignored too often by those unsure of their bets.
(2) Pot Odds revolve around the ‘outs' that could win the hand for us. A single overcard provides three outs. And the best combination with a draw for a Royal flush can be as high as 21 outs. A rough percentage of our potential is garnered by multiplying by four on the flop or by two at the turn. This gives us a range of 12 to 84 percent. The pot consists of the existing pot with the bet included. When we multiply that by our percentage we will either have the odds to call or a need to fold. If we play a lot of hands ignoring that we are relying on luck - the expected value of our continuing the hand is negative.
Pot odds review should also take into account the probable odds when the next card is exposed and there is a continuation bet. Read the book you have on this closely. It is a bit difficult to understand in the first reading. You must relate all this to your current stack in tournament play. We don't have the luxury of refunding as we do in a ring game environment.
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