Snapshot #1: Big Pots Won and Lost

Out of pocket for a few days as PokerWorks did some maintenance on servers etc.  I wanted to get deeper into the month’s results (now back up to -$300 or so for the month).  Specifically, I wanted to look at these big pots that I’ve been losing, as well as why I win some of them.  It seems every step forward I make is joined by another backwards.  Interesting what data shows.

I looked at triple-digit pots to start then sort of broadened it to include larger pots.  It is relative based on the stakes that I was playing and hardly scientific, but let’s look at it anyways.  I looked at ninety (90) hands, with 44 losers and 46 winners.  I should have also included the amounts won or lost, but I’ll have to do that next time.

The losers looked like this, in descending order of frequency:

• Bluffed (7)  This is where I bluffed at pots unsuccessfully
• Continuation Bets/Out (6)  Of course you have to continuation bet, and I’m sure I’ve won ten-fold this number of small pots.  I also am fairly deliberate not to CB at bad boards, but these six are where I bet and got pushed out of pots by raises.
• Suckout (6)  I’m ahead and someone comes from behind.
• Cooler (3)  I put hands where I caught really good hands only to be up against better ones.  I think that included a set over set as well as  set vs flopped straight.  Add 2nd nuts (2), and this is a category of hands tough to get away from.
• Kicker (3) Hands where I’m outkicked and suffer the consequences.
• Chase (3) Chasing straights or flushes but don’t get there.
• Those with two each include AA v KK, TPTK, setfarmed, and Good-to-Bad (hands that were dominant but turned bad)

Now, to the winners in descending order:

• Sets (9)  No great news here, and I’m sure there are nine more where I didn’t get paid off.
• Catch MV (8) This is catching big hands and getting paid off, from flopped straights to two-pairs to flushes.
• Chase (7) This is probably the one most people would peg me as that I need to look at.  I feel that I’ve become more judicious in when I chase hands; e.g., I won’t do it against shorties, I won’t do it if it’s too painful.  I call with drawing hands and will call continuation bets though.  Is this a leak?  I think most would say yes, but in 6-max you have to play more and chase some.
• Cooler (4)  Similar to Catch MV probably, these are sets over sets, better flushes, etc.
• Overpair (4) When I have an overpair and am against someone who has top pair.
• Those with two include SO Ooops (when I thought I was ahead, was actually behind, then suckout), Outkick the other guy, Race (all-in pre-flop and win the race), and Bluffed Into Me (someone bluffs their chips into me).

Now, are there insights into any of this?  Here’s a quick whack at initial analysis, but I’m more interested in the thoughts of others.  (btw, this is for 15k hands, where my stats were 21/12 and almost all of it was at 6-max, either $0.50/1 NLHE or $1/2 NLHE)

1. Bluff=Bad  Is this the weak/tight in me talking?   Will this be limiting me in the future if I embrace that I need to bluff even less than I do?  I don’t think I bluff much, so I’m not quite sure what to make of this to be honest.
2. Again, beware of kicker problems  This is about position and starting hand requirements.  It points to being more deliberate with marginal hands that hit; e.g., AJ or KQ.
3. Sets are goot  I missed a couple more monster pots laying down baby pairs in the face of a raise and re-raise before it gets to me in the blinds.  That’s probably the only time I don’t play pairs, and maybe I need to just call and hope even with that, ready to muck to a squeeze.
4. Maximizing value when you catch is mandatory  Fortunately or unfortunately, the poker I seem to play is less about seeing into someone’s soul or having heart and more about maximizing value on the rare occasion you hit a hand.  It isn’t easy for me.  I get frustrated when I bet my bottom set only to see the raiser and caller muck, then I get frustrated when I check the river when the scare card comes only to find that my straight is still good.  It’s all about value, and I think it is one of the tough parts of this game.
5. I’m CC, and I’m a Chaser  Do I chase more than others?  It’s hard to say.  I haven’t been too successful lately trying to convert my chasing into semi-bluffing.  It makes you feel like a better player, but I tend to get played back at or lose.  I definitely chase, yet occasionally I don’t maximize value when I get there.
6. I’m not very unlucky  I didn’t think I had some big bad-run problem, and the data seems to support that.  A couple of AA vs KK where I was on the wrong side of it, a couple of cooler hands, but nothing that dramatic from what I can see.
7. More analysis would be better  Every hand is really a story in poker, and there is alot of missing information for me.  How much am I winning from continuation bets?  I steal 23% of the time and take down 63% of those pre-flop.  My total aggression factor is 2.69%.  Etc, etc.  I realize how little time I spend analyzing my play.

I’d be interested in your thoughts on this, if you do something similar as well as your reaction to this.  Just leave a comment or email me at csquard@gmail.com.  Thanks for stopping by.