The Cooler

I went out of cc’s Bash as a 93% favorite on the flop. Think flopping the nut straight will hold up for me against Fuel55′s top pair, OK kicker and backdoor flush draw one pip above my backdoor flush draw?

C’mon, what do you think?

pokenum -h 9h th – jh 8h — 7c 6h 8d

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7c 8d 6h
cards  win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
Th 9h  925  93.43    65   6.57    0  0.00  0.934
Jh 8h   65   6.57   925  93.43    0  0.00  0.066

And on the turn…

pokenum  -h 9h th  - jh 8h  -- 7c 6h 8d 2h
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 7c 8d 6h 2h
cards  win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
Th 9h   37  84.09     7  15.91    0  0.00  0.841
Jh 8h    7  15.91    37  84.09    0  0.00  0.159

The money went in on the Qh river. And I’m out in 26th place of 27 runners. Can’t catch a break.

This is getting thoroughly embarassing.

Fuel tsk tsked me in his blog for the way I played the hand, but I feel just fine about milking a known aggressor for bets on the flop and turn when I was 93% and 84% to win respectively. He just got lucky and hit one of many perfect river cards he would go on to enjoy that night, including another J-8 hand where he rivered a full house on cc’s straight in a $2-4 NLHE game. Hit a perfect river and you’re a genius. Hit the other 84% of the deck and you’re just another guy calling raises with a weak top pair on a coordinated board.

In poker, luck is the line we often walk between donkey and genius. I’m just entirely on the wrong side of it lately.

Hee fuckin’ haw.