Let’s look at a “hypothetical” situation.
You are playing the PokerStars $11 rebuy, where there are over 1600 runners. You have $61 invested in the tournament. 232 players remain and the bubble bursts at 225. First payout level is $78, covering your investment. You have 44,000 in chips, just slightly above average. The blinds are 1000-2000/100. You have just been moved to a new table and have played less than an orbit there, but recognize the UTG player’s avatar from your first table, where you both played a loose-aggressive style in the early stages of the rebuy period. That same player (big-stacked at 100,000) raises UTG to 7000. You are dealt K-K in 3rd position. You consider pushing, but decide instead to re-raise to 20,000. Action folds around back to the UTG player, who moves all-in. You have 24,000 remaining in your stack.
What’s your move?
(I’ll be revisiting this hand and the J-T hand in a later post)
Hypothetically, I really hope he doesn’t have aces. In a low buyin tourney with his stack his range could be a high-weighted 88-AA, AK, AQs. But even if his range is only QQ-AA you have to call. Your proximity to bottom money shouldn’t influence your decision of whether or not to call.
If you want to consider outcomes, well, call and win, you have twice par on the bubble. Fold and you have half par on the bubble after committing 40%+ of your stack with the second-best starting hand in the game. Call and lose, you’re out, which sucks, but you’re unlikely to be getting your money in bad there in the long run.
Well… you definitely push. If you’re suggesting the re-raise represents Aces, then you have to give me more evidence than that. Otherwise, it’s an easy push. That’s especially considering you told us that when you played with that player earlier in the tournament, you had a loose-aggressive image. With that in mind, he could put you on anything.
Bottom line, a double up helps you towards the better goal of winning the tournament. A fold here leaves you crippled and praying to reach the bubble.
It certainly sounds like the monster stack is trying to push you around. As he should that near the bubble in the tournament. You need seven more players to bust out to get into the money. Many people would push back in this situation, you are only behind A-A at this point and doubling up would put you in contention for a much bigger prize than "covering your investment"
My thought, while many would consider timid, is that you have just spent north of three hours to get to this point. I want a return for that time. I would have folded the K-K to the initial raise, not wanting to commit to this hand. If you are going to raise, I don’t think this raise is the right way to do it. You can’t really make a bigger raise without committing yourself to the pot. I honestly think that you are in a "push or fold" position, with my preference being to fold (before the initial raise).
In your actual position there is 67,900 in the pot (3900 in blinds and antes + 7000 initial raise+ your 20,000 raise plus his push (13,000 call+ 24,000 that you have behind). So you are getting nearly 3-1 on your call. The only hand that he can have that doesn’t make this an instacall is A-A. I think you have to call, given this situation.
You gotta go. If you meet Mr Cooler, or get outdrawn, you have the rest of the night to yourself. 92k gives you a lot of muscle.
Get it all in there. If he has Aces or AK and nails an Ace, so be it.
Why did you decide to re-raise instead of jamming?
3900 going out per round. You’ll be left with an M= ~6. You’ll have no power. You are — for better or worse — pot committed. And, if the blinds are due to go up soon, it gets worse.
He see you loose and he’s the same. So, he could be making the move with anything. The range of hands here is anything from the dread AA down to mid-pockets and on down to zilch. And, I’d guess mid-pockets. Maybe 9′s or T’s. He’s in race mode.
Everybody hears this is the time you can steal. He’s thinking you’re doing to him what he’s going to try on you. You have the second best hand, play it. Beats playing all-in where almost anyone can call you when you play A-rag in a minute or two with a short stack. If he has the rockets, so be it.
I push, and I"m a tight MoFo.
Push.
Squeaking into money is not goal of MTT. Playing for final table then top 3 will cover a lot of buy ins.
He would make exactly the same play with AK, KK, QQ (probably even JJ-TT). The only reason to fold there is if you need those 70 dollars for food and shelter…
You have to try and get as far as possible, and here’s a chance of growing the stack. It doesn’t matter if it’s near the bubble, the sound play is to call imo.
I dislocate both my arms shoving chips into the pot in this instance. And then go get a beer to cry into when he flops a set of 5s on my and his Presto beats me. But I still push.