Change100 at PokerWorks

Oh my God, it’s already here.

Wasn’t it like, 10 minutes ago that Jamie Gold lucksacked his way to the WSOP final table and got slapped with a lawsuit by Crispin Leyser over half his winnings?

Man, those were the days. Back when the UIGEA was just that little legislative thingamajig everyone was sorta ignoring and the halls of the Rio Convention Center were painted in online poker advertisments. There was a Poker Stars suite and a Full Tilt Suite and an Ultimate Bet Suite and a Bodog suite where the free booze flowed and scantily clad models hocked iPod giveaways and signup bonuses. I blogged the WSOP for Party Poker, got paid through Neteller and played on that site during my off-hours. None of those things could happen this year. Not at the first post-UIGEA World Series of Poker.

I had a spirited debate with Pauly a few weeks back about the implications of online poker sites now paying out cash to players who have won seats in the Main Event instead of directly registering them for the tournament. I firmly believe that more than two-thirds of them will elect to keep the $10,000 or $12,000 in cash instead of playing the ME. I think it will be extremely difficult for most people to take that cash (and for most of them it’s likely their biggest score ever in poker) and lay it all on the line for a shot at the WSOP. Ten or twelve thousand dollars is a lot of money to average Americans. It can pay off long-standing credit card debt, buy a new car, or, in some parts of the country, represent a down payment on a house. I know if I won a Main Event seat and suddenly had $12K in my online poker account, I’d cash that sucker out, throw $10K of it in the bank and maybe play a smaller buy-in event at the WSOP, say the $1K Ladies’ Event or a $2K NLHE event. But there’s no way in hell I’d walk up to that cashier’s cage with 100 $100 bills and leave with only a seating card in return. Pauly disagrees. He’s of the school of thought that for most of these guys that try to win seats, the WSOP is their Great American Dream, their one shot at immortality. He believes that for many of them, it’s worth the $10,000 to come home to Wisconsin or New Jersey or wherever and be able to tell their friends they played in the World Series of Poker and sat next to Johnny Chan/sucked out on Phil Hellmuth/put Annie Duke on tilt.

Finding out which one of us is right might also prove to be difficult. If most people do end up keeping the cash, are the online sites going to acknowledge that? Currently 1000 players have won Main Event Seats on Poker Stars while 151 have qualified on Full Tilt. Those numbers will nearly double in all likelihood before the Big Dance kicks off on July 6.

I’ve been asked by everyone from leading poker industry figures to the guy sitting next to me in the $4-8 game at Red Rock how many people I think will play in the Main Event this year. My educated guess is about 5,500 and I’m sticking to it. As for online qualifiers, I think 30% or less of them will actually buy in to the Main Event. I am willing to gamble sums of money on these figures if anyone is interested.

I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again. The crew at PokerNews is the most experienced, top-quality group of writers you’ll find in the poker world and I’m humbled to be a part of their senior staff for this year’s WSOP. My colleagues include John “Schecky” Caldwell, Justin Shronk, Tim Lavalli, Amy Calistri, the one and only Dr. Pauly, B.J. Nemeth, Jay “WhoJedi” Newnum, Tiffany Michelle, Mean Gene, Flipchip, and Steve Horton. We’re the official tournament reporting outlet for the WSOP and will be covering the action around the clock on PokerNews.com with live updates, chip counts and videos. Our news feeds will also be available on the official WSOP site.

The best part of the Series for me is watching the stories and themes unfold. Who will be this year’s Jeff Madsen-esque wunderkind? Which online stars will emerge from behind the anonymity of their screen names to capture a bracelet? Who’s backing who? Who’s broke and on the borrow? Who’s stuck in the cash games and who’s crushing nightly? Who’s blowing their winnings on hookers and trips to Crazy Horse Too? Will Chan, Brunson or Hellmuth win a record 11th bracelet? Will a female player win an open event? Will the food totally suck? Will Jeffrey Pollack show up on the tournament floor wearing a non-pastel-hued shirt? Will Dan Michalski dress in drag and play the Ladies Event?

Buckle up, kids. It’s gonna be a helluva 47 days. Let’s shuffle up and deal!

This entry was posted on Friday, June 1st, 2007 at 12:43 am and is filed under Uncategorized.