Chasing Chris Ferguson

Having played online poker for a while now and watching the progress of my colleagues, it comes to mind that there are far worse ways to spend leisure time, especially for those of us who enjoy gambling. 

Since I am no pro, I do not know the statistics for the percentages of winners in casino gaming or the amount of people who really win bucks at the horse races or the dog tracks.  However, I see and hear of far more winners at online poker than I have every witnessed in those other places.  Sure, I have come home a winner from Biloxi or Vegas but I have come home a loser far more often!  In fact, we took our guest to Tampa Bay Downs for the Tampa Bay Derby a couple of weeks ago and I DID come home a winner but not from betting on the horses that I thought would win. 

I had bet on several early races (not much money because I am a total novice) and won absolutely nada.  When the board out by the track started posting the odds for the derby and I had bet an super box on all four the expected performers, I noticed that ALL of the remaining horses had 99-1 odds and if I remember correctly there were 5 of them.  All day long, every box tri or super bet had been ruined by 1 unknown horse that got in the middle of everyone’s box making those tickets purchased worthless!  When I saw those odds and realized that the same thing was most likely going to happen to my box in this race, I ran for the wager lines as fast as I could go.  I bet a modest Win, Place or Show on all five of the high odd horses and guess what?  I WON!  I won enough money to cover the other bets made that day as well as to pay for the beer we all drank and the gas it took to get to the track!  Not bad for the “unknown gambler” eh? (Please note that some of those horse odds had dropped by post time but none were less than 45-1).

 I don’t think I would have even paid attention to all those odds up there on the board if I had not been playing poker as often as I have.  My play has made me far more aware of odds in calculating the probability of winning hands!  Taking our little experiment here as an example, two out of the three of us are making real viable money here.  I just happen to be the third of the three who is not!  So,  66% of our little group is doing very well.

If they can win enough freeroll tourneys to generate a bankroll for playing paid tourneys and then continue to build from there, then I would think there is a good probability that a lot of regular folks out there can do the same!  What do any of them have to lose?  However, there is another point to ponder.  If a lot of those folks are like me and just can’t seem to win in the freerolls, they can make modest deposits, get the matching sign up bonus and still most likely do well.  My reason for believing this is because players who pay to play in a tourney tend to play by THE RULES of poker rather than playing in a Helter Skelter “Free For All” style so that there is a far better chance to win by using your poker skills!  Those of us in this experiment cannot make a deposit or take advantage of a sign-up bonus (which, by the way, are currently very generous).

At any rate, I am still trying to win a freeroll and participated in three of them last night.  My first was on Ultimate Bet where I got into the 5:35 p.m. HE freeroll where I finished #2645 of 5000 after going All-In on A,K after flopping another King for a pair.  My opponent happened to have pocket Kings and slow-played me to the end where I picked up an Ace on the River and went for it.  Chalk up yet another Royal Cowboy Butt Kick for me.

I then played in the Ultimate Bet Omaha 8/b 6:35 Freeroll and lasted over two hours in that one.  I finished 911th of 5000 when I lost my trip Nines to trip Queens, which again I got slow played and never suspected my opponent had a pocket pair of Queens!

Then there was my Poker Stars HE Freeroll, which I had been playing simultaneously with the other two tourneys as it started at 5:32 p.m.  I took out a couple of players early on by going All-In with a Full House and a very nice Straight Flush.  My chip stack was pretty healthy at around 20,000 chips and I slowly added to it for a while.  In fact, after 3 hours of play, I was holding my own with 50,000 chips and there were 272 players left in the game.  I only had to make it to 99 as the prize was for 99 players to advance to the next round by playing in another tournament for bucks.

Then, as the old Maxiecat fate would have it, I had a couple of bad beats where I lost down to around 23,000 chips.  I lost my straight to a River made Flush and lost two pair to trips.  The end came when I caught a Q,4 on the BB and only two players called.  Blinds were at $2000/$4000 and I checked.  The flop was a Q,4,J and everyone checked so I bet 4000 chips to see who was serious.  One player folded and I was left with a player who had over 100,000 chips and he called.  The turn was a 6 and and he went all in so I joined him.  He turned up a J,6 so two pair had a jump on his two pair but it was not to be.  The River was a J and I was gone!  Oh, that lonely, rolling River washed me away again!  I finished #237 of 12,000 players. $Maxiecat$

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 26th, 2008 at 5:24 pm and is filed under Uncategorized.