I’ll have to smooth over things with Keith Sexton in the morning
On Sunday night, I had my best-ever finish in a poker tournament, on Full Tilt Poker. In Full Tilt’s weekly $350,000 guarantee, out of 2,279 players, I finished FIFTH. Even though I won a Main Event seat on Full Tilt back in April and have won at least a half-dozen other tournaments on the site, it was the biggest tournament in which I ever made the final table, and my biggest cash.
I want to go over the tournament hand history to point out a couple interesting things, but it’s 420 pages long.
This will have to do for now, until I can look it over and give you a better report:
1. I busted my friend, Full Tilt Pro Keith Sexton, on the bubble. (Keith bailed me out on the Full Tilt book, helping me complete the Seven Card Stud section on short notice with some great analysis. Jay Greenspan assisted him in giving me a great chapter for the book.)
2. I had a legion of enemies, some predating Sexton, some BECAUSE of Sexton, and some I just accumulated along the way. Most of these people had no idea how to play poker.
3. Many people were nice enough to watch and root for me, primarily because my enemies were so numerous and vocal. Mike Matusow even stuck around to watch me at the final table, which was very cool.
This is the second time I busted Sexton in a tournament and, though I think I’m giving myself too much credit if I say, “he’s getting tired of it,” he lingered to make a comment that incited the railbirds for HOURS. (I’m not exaggerating. Some of the people who aped his comments stuck around for THREE AND A HALF HOURS to wait to see me eliminated.)
The funny thing is that Keith - an excellent player and nice guy - was probably wrong.
Here is the hand, and I guarantee you my explanation will be shorter than all the people who talked about it for hours as I moved from table to table over the last three hours of that tournament.
The tournament paid 351 players. We were down to 353 at the beginning of the hand. The average chip position was just under 20,000. I had 43,825, second at the table. Keith Sexton had 12,105. The button was with Keith Sexton in the 1 seat. I was in the 7 seat so I acted 4th. Blinds were 500-1000, antes 125. There was 2,625 in the pot at the beginning of each hand.
[I consider this very relevant but no one else knew it: I've played with Keith Sexton. In fact, he was at my table for most of the tournament where I won my entry to the Main Event. He plays an aggressive "pro-style" game. He raises in position as much as he can and he looks to attack weakness, both before and after the flop. When he came to the table several hands earlier, his stack was a little short but he doubled up and had started opening up his play. He lost a hand, which put him back on a slightly short stack. The hand he lost was against me. On one of the first hands after he doubled up, he raised my blind. I called with Q-4. When the flop came 9-5-4, I check-raised him and he folded. I did it because I thought there was a chance I had the best hand, and because I definitely wanted to keep him off my blind. I knew from experience that he would raise someone's blind every time if he thought they would call only with a real hand.]
The first 3 players folded. I had Qd-Th. I raised to 2,500. This table was pretty tight and no one, especially as we neared the money, seemed in the mood to play without a real hand. Everyone folded to Keith Sexton on the button, who moved all-in for his last 11,980 chips. The blinds folded.
Here is the info for doing the math: (a) There was a total of 17,105 chips in the pot; and (b) it would cost me 9,480 to call. I would be putting 9,480 chips - 35.65% - into a pot with a final value of 26,585.
My thinking was very clear here. Andy Bloch and I spent hours going over scenarios like this in preparing the pre-flop chapter in the Full Tilt book: (1) I’m getting about 2-to-1 to call; (2) There aren’t many hands where I am much worse than a 2-to-1 dog [AA, KK, QQ, AQ, AT, KQ, KT]; (3) There are a lot of hands where I am a 2-to-1 dog or better [pairs TT and lower, A-anything[but Q or T]] - if he turned up his hand and showed me AK, I would call because I am less than a 2-to-1 dog to AK; (4) There is a non-trivial percentage that Keith has junk and is playing back at me - knowing that I don’t have a premium hand - because he thinks I was just playing back at him on our previous confrontation. (There is a 1% chance he was dealt AA, KK, or QQ, and I put the chances of him making a move on me at higher than 1% - that’s a pro move and a lot of players will fold to it, plus Keith isn’t obsessing over making bottom money in this tournament. He wants to accumulate chips and DOMINATE.) (5) I could afford to be wrong. If I’m wrong, I make it into the money and have 50% more chips than average. But if I’m right, I have have nearly triple the average, move toward the top of the 350 players remaining, and take over the table chip lead. And I get $200 from Full Tilt and a tee shirt.
I called, and he turned over ace-king. That was fine. I put in 35.65% of the chips and had a 35.51% chance to win.
I drew out. The board was Ks-Qc-4s-Td-6d.
The railbirds were livid.
Whether this was a smart move I made or not has nothing to do with the fall of the cards after the money was in. And the hand Keith had - with which I would have done exactly the same thing if the cards were face up - was secondary, as AK was one possible hand, hands like AA-KK-QQ were possible hands, 88-66-44 were possible hands, and JT-73 were other possible hands. There were a range of hands he could have.
2 players, 6 railbirds, and Keith Sexton, attacked my call, and at least one thought I had no business raising with Q-To. (That guy was lucky to make his money back in this or any other tournament.)
KashedOwt (Observer): another moron play
coheed13 (Observer): what a joke
ChiTownsFinest (Observer): 12k worth Q10 off
ChiTownsFinest (Observer): luckbox later all
Michael Craig: I got lucky but you people who think it was a bad call have no idea what you’re talking about.
coheed13 (Observer): horrible raise bad call
Michael Craig: I’m pleased that so many people don’t understand the game.
[Some observers were pointing out the benefit of raising to get the blinds and antes, so one asked coheed13 if it was never a good idea to raise with QTo.]
coheed13 (Observer): i would not have raised with q 10 os no
[I am missing the comment from Sexton but he questioned the play - not the raise but the call. He said something to the effect that I wasn't getting the right odds to make that play.]
Michael Craig: Now I’m going to have to look it up Keith. I thought QT was 33% to beat AK.
DominateYou (Observer): a pro just said it was a donk call and he still talks sht
Boduzefa (Observer): yea pretty funny
Boduzefa (Observer): 1/4 of ure stack with Q10 cmon
Keith Sexton (Observer): it is but hat if i have aa kk or qq   your assuming a coin flip
Michael Craig: But I also thought there was a chance you were bullying me. (Oops, was way wrong there.)
akdevil69 (Observer): it was a horrible call…you’re all idiots
Boduzefa (Observer): we all know craig is a noob
DominateYou (Observer): keith is tight as they get, bad call period stop defending urself
Keith Sexton (Observer): there is no way q-10Â could be good
Jetfan44: it really was a horrible call no matter which way you wanna look at it
Claw1980 (Observer): it probably isnt good, but its really close to an ace eight, which i dont think would have been an unreasonable push there
Keith Sexton (Observer): i like your style of play mike good luckÂ
Jetfan44: Deep down, Keith isnt rooting for Mike
Boduzefa (Observer): yes its a style of play to donk of his chips to better players
Michael Craig: Thanks, and I feel bad about busting you, Keith. Even though it is poker.
DominateYou (Observer): michael, if you werent extremely lucky youd already be out stop justifying your dumb calls
myway100 (Observer): If Sexton says it he is
Michael Craig: Keith bailed me out and wrote a chapter for my book when I was near the deadline and desperate. He’s a great guy and obviously a skilled player.
Either none of these people know what they are talking about, or I don’t know what I’m talking about. With all due respect to Keith Sexton, he is wrong. MAYBE, if the stacks had been reversed, I could have been justified not calling all-in as an underdog on the bubble. I could have been a wimp and folded.
But what kind of reasoning is it that I should fold because he could possibly have one of the very, very rare hands that is giving me worse than 2-to-1? Here is every single hand where I am much worse than 2-to-1:
AA, KK, QQ, AQ, AT, KQ, KT. There is about a 5% chance he was dealt one of those hands.
There is a 4% chance he will have a pocket pair 99 or below, where it is nearly a coin flip and I am making a terrible error if I turn down 2-to-1 odds on a coin flip. There is a 1% chance he has JJ or TT, where my odds are a tiny worse than 2-to-1.
Keith Sexton, I believe, would put a move on me more than 5% of the time. He tried doing it less than 5 hands earlier. He tried it numerous times when we played a tournament together back in April. The guy who says “Keith is as tight as they get” is smoking crack. Sexton is a smart, savvy player who does very well in these tournaments for the same reason I am trying to change my play to emulate his: most online players in crucial situations play as straightforward as possible.
In fact, Sexton had the hand I thought he had, AK. And it was neither a good nor a bad move to call, as I was getting the same odds from the pot as my likelihood of winning.
The crazy thing is that this happened at 9:25 PM EST. At 11:45 PM, one railbird pointed out “Michael busted out Keith on a nub play.” That was almost 2 1/2 hours after it happened. ANOTHER HOUR LATER, still another railbird - and neither of these guys were either part of the conversation back when we were on the bubble, said, “Yeah, Keith Sexton was talking shiat about MC.”
It’s a good thing these tournaments pay. Granted, I turned off the observer chat a couple times, but that was because someone was repeatedly asking for money. The first time, I recommended that he play one of Fult Tilt’s many freerolls that pay out $100. I didn’t say anything the next 200 times he asked.
I think the complainers on the rail should be ashamed to be outed for their poor manners. Secondarily, they don’t know what they are talking about.
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November 27th, 2006 at 8:14 am
Seems like a standard play all around. Obviously people who are willing to chide a player from the rail aren’t exactly people to take into account.
Love the blog, and your book made a train ride quite bearable for me last year,
Thank You
Damo
November 27th, 2006 at 8:52 am
Mike, don’t worry about it. People that cannot figure out situations like that on their own are idiots anyway and do not deserve a response. You are not a donk, I am not sure if I would have played the hand the same way, but you have both a logical and rational reason for your actions. The fact that you can think about it clearly while in the midst of a crucial situation is what seperates the men from the boys. By the way, what did Mikey have to say about the way the hand went down??
November 27th, 2006 at 9:32 am
How many of those railbirds were asking you for a little stake when you made the final table?
November 27th, 2006 at 10:02 am
Everyone sucks out at times. Also, you also were right to call. Congrats Mike.
Neil
November 27th, 2006 at 11:46 am
Congrats on the final table, Michael. And welcome to Full Tilt’s railboors. Chat is always useless at the final table of the big FT Sunday event, and it’s always much worse when one of the pros is playing or sweating the play, as Mike Matusow was last night. Half those people were trying to target him through you, once it was clear he was sweating you.
The play against Keith Sexton is clearly +EV, including the bounty posssibilities. I think Lou Krieger wrote an interesting piece about bounty-driven play about a year ago, but it also explains something about Sexton’s holdings in that spot: Given his shortish stack, he had -much- lower than normal bluff equity. Bounties force the players upon whose heads they are placed to play tighter, because they know others will take shots at them.
November 27th, 2006 at 12:17 pm
I was one of your fans on the rail. I checked in to see how it was going and was SHOCKED to see how poisonous everyone was being toward you!! It goes back to your post of a few days ago but I was still very surprised! I am curious to see what some of the other pros have to say about your move here. It was cool to see Mikey pop in on your final table.
Anyway, great game!! Enjoy the post, as always!
November 27th, 2006 at 12:43 pm
When you listed hands that were more than 2:1 favorites over you, you left off QJ.
I think you may be overestimating his chance of making this move with a low pair. I certainly wouldn’t expect a fold from you if you have a pair - maybe you fold something like 22-66 here, but other than that, you’re getting 2:1 and there’s a ton of hands he can do this with where you’d be a 55:45 favorite.
Anyhow, your analysis really hinges on his chance of making a move with a pair 99-, or undercards. It’s just a judgement call. He said, "There’s no chance QT is good here"; which means he’s claiming he never makes a move on you here with unders, and not that often with medium or low pairs. Making that move with an underpair is insanely dangerous, since there are basically no hands that call that you are better than coin flip against. Plus, he knows you just pushed him out of a pot.
There’s psychology here too. He knows he just made a move, and you ran him off. The idea that you raise and he just comes over the top with rags because you might be running a play on him again is too simple; he has to at least think it’s strongly possible that you may make a call with weaker cards simply because it’s him, and so he actually needs a stronger hand. (Although, if he thinks you can think that level also, he may revert to thinking he can push you off, because you may be thinking that he wouldn’t make that move without real cards BECAUSE you know he "might" be making a steaming push. Depending on how you’ve talked, it’s even possible he’s at a higher level than that, although it’s unlikely.)
You didn’t mention this in your analysis either, but I’d somewhat discount the chance he has AA-KK here, because he might be inclined to play them slower. I wonder what you’d have done if he raised to 6000? You know he’s playing for all his chips then, but would it make you more or less likely to fold? (Because you know this means it is more likely he has QQ+, but also, knowing that you would read it that way, he might raise this way with a weaker hand just to intimidate you!)
Regardless of all that, if he had a $200 bounty on him, I’m certain the chance of claiming it more than makes up for any discrepancy in your pot odds on that call.
November 27th, 2006 at 1:04 pm
Nicely done. Dont feel bad about Keith - I have busted him more times than I can remember …
November 27th, 2006 at 4:07 pm
Just don’t tap the aquarium huh?
November 27th, 2006 at 4:32 pm
Never defend your play.
November 27th, 2006 at 4:40 pm
Nice job Mike. What was the deal with your all in at the end though?. Five people were left and Yuk(the player after you) was about the be blinded out giving you at least a 4th place finish, but you pushed all in and lost before the blinds got to him/her, costing you (at least) 6k in prize money. Did you not notice the small stack size of Yuk? Please respond because I do not understand that play.
November 27th, 2006 at 5:36 pm
My responses to the Matts:
MattG - you are correct. I left QJ off the hands that worried more.
Matt - I absolutely noticed the super-small stack to my left. I weighed the $6,000 in prize money against the big benefits of playing AdQd as the first in: (1) Strong likelihood that I’d move in and everyone would fold, putting me back over 10x BB; (2) Decent likelihood I would get called by a hand I could beat - Matusow was shocked that the guy with 4-4 and no money in the pot would call 25% of his stack at a time like that - in which case I move up to over 1,000,000 chips and have a chance to finish in the top 3. I truly believed that I could play with those guys, and could just as menacing as them without cards, but I needed some chips, and probably needed cards to GET them.
This is what I had the previous 8 hands: 87s in the small blind (won the hand), Q8o (all-in in front of me, I folded), T9o in the cutoff (arguably, I should have pushed here, but it would have been all-in), 42s on the button (raised in front of me, I folded), T4s in the BB (x6 raise in front, I folded), T5o in small blind (raised in front of me, I folded), 94o (fold), 53o (fold).
I don’t need great cards in a short-handed game to play, and I might have erred by not pushing with T9o in the cutoff. But it had been raised in front of me or I had unspeakably mediocre hands the rest of the time. I put AQs in the 97th percentile of hands for raising. I felt it was worth more than $6,000 to start there. If I beat 4-4, I’m over a million, back in the hunt, and I have some credibility for making that play with 9-4o because now they associate me having a hand when I push.
Michael
November 27th, 2006 at 5:51 pm
1) Congrats on 5th place.
2) FullTilt Railbirds are at their stupidest when Mike Matusow or Clonie Gowen are present. Stupidity takes different forms for each.
3) Raising with QT early is aggressive but not stupid as play tightens up near bubble, Sexton is not playing to barely cash. His level 1 thought is AK is pretty good, Level 2 thought is he hopes you made play with an Ace, Level 3 thought is having worked on a book together he knows you have to call him and he wants the thought in your head that you know he knows you have to call therefore maybe you shouldn’t. Calling with Q-T was oviously fine was you account for a) you are going to money anyway and b)ounty.
4) My personal record for being berated by railbirds on Full Tilt is 35 minutes. I had just lost most of my stack with KK against A rag (raised UTG, called all in re-raise) when as BB with 1x BB left where UTG min raised, 4 callers and Big Stack at table raised all in. I called with 2s4s because I was getting 9:1 on my money, flop had 3s5s5h and As on river allowed me to crack big stacks AA. Only the Big Stack appreciated my play
November 27th, 2006 at 11:53 pm
As one of the railbirds who watched most of the tournament I am ashamed and embarrassed. The constant panhandling and disrespect made it impossible to use the chat for what it’s there for.
Sorry.
November 28th, 2006 at 1:34 am
Hey,
MC i was one of the rail birds supporting your play. I watched just about every hand of yours after Mike M. got knocked out. The only thing I would say is you should have waited to push after the gal to your left was busted but other than that you played very well. and you are a great writter keep it up and good luck.
the_sd_kid
November 28th, 2006 at 2:44 pm
Michael,
Congrats on the 5th place finish. You took the time to consider the call even if you lost the hand you are still in the hand. Sexton put his chips on the line. I see nothing wrong with what you or Keith did.
November 28th, 2006 at 4:30 pm
Sorry for the previous reply. It should read still in the tournament. Thats what I get for doing this at work.
November 28th, 2006 at 10:25 pm
You are a skilled player, and the fact people with real money accounts to nothing but railbird and talk shit to you is unbelievable. You are fun to watch and I felt good about trying to be encouraging amoung the rude masses. Congrats on your finish and hopefullt FTP will do more to revoke the rail chat that is nothing but jealousy!
November 28th, 2006 at 11:17 pm
Mike - the odds were correct for what you interepreted the situation to be, and more importantly, you had experience playing with Keith and had that insider knowledge that he bluffs at the blinds. You were playing the player - that is a big-time, ‘pro’ play - congrats on your finish, and never mind the idiotic ranting from the railbirds who can only envy your finish…
November 28th, 2006 at 11:23 pm
Mike - congrats on your finish. As for the negative commentary from the railbirds, it’s easy to criticize from the rail - you made a very calculated call and, based upon the situation, it was the right thing to do (and fortunately, worked out). But - importantly, you played the player, and not just the odds - you took into consideration what you already knew about Keith’s trying to steal from the button. That’s big-time, and a ‘pro’ move - congrats on your play and finish!