How high’s the water, Mama?

Around here that is a pretty common question. We got 4-5” across the area yesterday. I was out in it before daylight. Had to be down the road a piece and in this case it meant a time zone change and and short days had me rolling in the dark. There was a loss of life south of here where a fellow in a vehicle was washed into the river – truck and all. The firemen almost got to him but he went under a bridge into rough water and was lost.

I got off late and pushed it a bit more than I should under those conditions. With the wipers in their highest speed, I could still barely see the road. But I was luckier than the guy that tried to get over that rushing water.

There is flooding all around the area. Pick a direction and I can point out an area with flooding. We’ve got schools and functions shut down all over the area. We’ll now go through the flood watches as the crests move downstream.

This flooding is fairly localized. It is a fairly narrow strip running south of Chicago and angling northeast. Guess we got unlucky. We’d been lucky the day before when tornadoes went through north of us in the same general path that the snows had been taking.

We talk about luck in poker and the courts rule on luck versus skill. The courts seem to feel that randomness is what makes poker a gamble. It seems you can outlaw anything that is a gamble – except in California. But, every moment of life is a gamble. That guy that died in his truck by being washed into a stream that most of the time meanders could have gotten an insurance policy for that event at a very low cost. The probability was far less than someone hitting a 1 outer.

The UIGEA is there to protect us too. Problem gamblers are a fixed percentage and don’t really play poker as much as fast randomness in the pit games and slots but they do need protection. They protect us with seatbelt laws, cars that have their headlights always on, smoking illegal in more and more places including the open parks of that windy city up the road.

All this seems to make sense to us as we ignore the reality of random events. If we didn’t though, we’d go crazy. I’m writing this with a roof and second floor over my head. You do realize what could happen if that lets go don’t you? And someplace – probably many places – in this world a roof is falling in on some poor soul as I type away. The thing is we can ignore the odds for a lot of things that can’t be outlawed. Yet the government makes the decision on my gambling as a choice in non-life threatening arena that gives me a bit of enjoyment. Others don’t question that right because it doesn’t affect them. It is easy to ignore reality not being a given. If you don’t believe me, ask the dinosaurs.

The last couple of days we’ve relied on the masses. Iowa and New Hampshire have spoken. Seems the error factor in all that polling is the winner. Lots of one outers showing up in this world at places other than the poker table. I’ll find that some solace when one of those drawing machines hits his runner – runner today. After all, we’ve all really beat the odds according to the evolution and DNA specials we’ve seen on PBS of late. We are here as human being and what were the odds of that?

ADDENDUM:

Remember the OSHA cowboy? Maybe you are too young but it got a lot of press back when I was interested in riding horses and chasing girls women.

http://www.hsegroup.com/hse/images/cowboy.gi

How high’s the water, Mama?

Around here that is a pretty common question. We got 4-5” across the area yesterday. I was out in it before daylight. Had to be down the road a piece and in this case it meant a time zone change and and short days had me rolling in the dark. There was a loss of life south of here where a fellow in a vehicle was washed into the river – truck and all. The firemen almost got to him but he went under a bridge into rough water and was lost.

I got off late and pushed it a bit more than I should under those conditions. With the wipers in their highest speed, I could still barely see the road. But I was luckier than the guy that tried to get over that rushing water.

There is flooding all around the area. Pick a direction and I can point out an area with flooding. We’ve got schools and functions shut down all over the area. We’ll now go through the flood watches as the crests move downstream.

This flooding is fairly localized. It is a fairly narrow strip running south of Chicago and angling northeast. Guess we got unlucky. We’d been lucky the day before when tornadoes went through north of us in the same general path that the snows had been taking.

We talk about luck in poker and the courts rule on luck versus skill. The courts seem to feel that randomness is what makes poker a gamble. It seems you can outlaw anything that is a gamble – except in California. But, every moment of life is a gamble. That guy that died in his truck by being washed into a stream that most of the time meanders could have gotten an insurance policy for that event at a very low cost. The probability was far less than someone hitting a 1 outer.

The EIGEA is there to protect us too. Problem gamblers are a fixed percentage and don’t really play poker as much as fast randomness in the pit games and slots. They protect us with seatbelt laws, cars that have their headlights always on, smoking illegal in more and more places including the open parks of that windy city up the road.

All this seems to make sense to us as we ignore the reality of random events. If we didn’t we’d go crazy. I’m writing this with a roof and second floor over my head. You do realize what could happen if that lets go don’t you? And someplace – probably many places – in this world a roof is falling in on some poor soul as I type away. The thing is we can ignore the odds for a lot of things that can’t be outlawed. Yet the government makes the decision on my gambling as a choice in non-life threatening arena that gives me a bit of enjoyment. Others don’t question that right because it doesn’t affect them. It is easy to ignore reality not being a given. If you don’t believe me, ask the dinosaurs.

The last couple of days we’ve relied on the masses. Iowa and New Hampshire have spoken. Seems the error factor in all that polling is the winner. Lots of one outers showing up in this world at places other than the poker table. I’ll find that some solace when one of those drawing machines hits his runner – runner today. After all, we’ve all really beat the odds according to the evolution and DNA specials we’ve seen on PBS of late. We are here as human being and what were the odds of that?