Smart Limit

<> is programmer talk for not equal. As a programmer, you deal in absolutes. Computers are designed to function in such a manner. At the limit tables I am frequenting, the decision tree is far more obscure. I try to avoid getting into the oxymoron argument in this one.

I first started off playing Limit. I hated it. I also really sucked at playing it which might have contributed to that prejudice. It is a different disipline from No Limit or Pot Limit. When I moved to NL in SnG’s, I could bet a player off a hand that a limit player could chase with. That seemed a big advantage. But, it does come with its own complexities. One isn’t easier or harder than the other. They are just very different.

Bluffing happens everywhere. It is a part of the game. But, the cost vs benefit level is quite different. Bluffing at Limit seems easy. Lord knows you see a lot of it. It makes more sense in the flop games where the button is fixed. It can lead to costly situations at the stud tables where first bets often fly around positions that give it and take it away with regularity. That makes bluffing far more difficult at times. But most players cut their teeth playing flops and simple position values that don’t change. I don’t beleive their thinking transitions to the changes.

Harrington factors bluffs in at a rate of 10%. That seems as reasonable a figure to work from as any. We don’t really get a success rate. It’d be interesting if statistics were released from the feature tables we’ve seen across a spectrum of varied tournaments. A bluff means you win with the worse hand. We attribute that to various fears on the part of the other player. I think the one that’s often missed or discounted is the fear of looking bad. It is a constant topic in blogger tournaments but seldom seen elsewhere.

A constant theme in good TV analysis is deductive reasoning based on the texture of the cards being seen. Mike does an exceptional job in discussing that feature of play. And good players on their good days can do an exceptional job of extrapolation. But that is NL and tournament and that is drifting from the subject.

Discipline differ. Ring vs Tournament is the classic example. Tournaments are binary for the player. Ring provides different factors with success coming incrementally. In limit it often uses the definition of BB/hr. The known average for such wins might run between 2 and 4 big blinds per hour. Yet variance can and does provide great variance.

All of the above and more is a part of my experience. How well I translate all this from hand to hand is arguable and varied. We will all screw that up but we understand our mistake – at least after the fact – when we revert to our experience and general knowledge.

Let’s get to the meat of this. I’ve been playing stud for a fair amount of time and played a lot of HORSE before switching. I got away from HORSE because I thought my Limit Holdem skill average at best. Omaha was a better game for me but I preferred it without 8 or better being thrown in. In the stud areas, I became most comfortable with StudHi; so, I migrated.

While there is a hue and cry over the inability of many folks to refund their account leading to a loss of fishes, the pond remains well stocked. The rate of people seeing a flop at .25-.50 is in the 60-70% range. Those seeing flops at high stakes are in the 20-30% range. There is a turnover at the stud tables I’m playing on but it has been always so. Fish migrate.

Over the years, I’ve migrated too. About the time I can sight and show success, I get a bit jaded and give something else a try. My only real failure at that was Limit Holdem. I think I could pull it off today but I really don’t have the nature to enjoy it. I’m actually considering trying to move up instead of move on. That isn’t a part of my nature either but I don’t see why that should stop me. I’ve been there and done or at least tried that in about all the seats open.

I’ve gotten somewhat comfortable at Stud. I really shouldn’t be. I’m more a novice at this than I’ve been in other situations with the same playing time. The reason is my enjoyment level has remained consistent. SnG’s were the only thing that really held my attention as well or long as has Stud play. If it were only about win rates, I’d either have never left or would now return. Strangely to some, I don’t play to win money and even more strangely I’m now considering moving up and in a weaker game.

This article has really jumped around. Seems to reflect my current attitude. So, I’ll end this before I confuse you even more than I’m confused.

ADDENDUM:

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The markets have been in a bit of a tizzy. They keep asking the Federal Reserve to do their Might Mouse imitation. “Here he comes to save the day.”

Well, they should only do so well. Hell, throw in Tom and Jerry in this cartoon mix. Thinking of congress? Then throw in Wiley Coyote and make the Acme company the IRS — that’s their cartoonish source tool to solve every problem while standing in open air and not yet looking down.

The fact is the Federal Reserve was formed in 1913 to stabilize the dollar. Today — almost 100 years and a huge recession later — that dollar is worth $.04 compared to what they started with. Whether it is infrastructure, medical insurance, or your kids advanced education, we are getting to a point we can’t afford it. And, few politicians are remotely considering they might be part of the problem.

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In my effort to be anything and everything…

Last night while channel surfing I ran by the HSN and stopped. They were pimping spring (It is 13 here at the moment.) with all their pretty flowers. I was admiring the Hydrangeas when they added to be sure to buy (not cheap) the acid fertilizer they need. Don’t be silly! Save your coffee grounds. Best acidic fertilizer out there and cost free. (This advertisement brought to you by Mother Nature and not some paid advertisement about a poker site…for a change.)

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My roll on PokerStars is in a roller coaster holding pattern at the moment. This translates to up a few and down a few. At the moment, that also translates into being down about $10 from last report. Played a round this morning and added 17 to the roll. Was doing average and then a couple of idiots showed up raising everything. They did that into a couple of my boats.

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 24th, 2008 at 11:15 am and is filed under Other poker. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.