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Noting luck and it transient aspect and an off topic addendum

First hand of the day at PokerStars: (Pure Luck Genius)

I like this hand beyond the fact of winning it. It shows some of the stupid action players will make or follow. It also show two hands that – even though I clearly dominated early play – can suck out for winners. I think that is the most joyful happening imaginable – they suck out and still lose.

We missed capping the door by one. Those headed for the showdown were me with a set of jacks and 76s5 and 4Ts4s. The table was aggressive but both those hands should have folded to any raise instead of joining in.

You’ll notice that 6th and 7th were both capped. The closest hand to mine did this with tens full but you’ll note that happened when his three downs played. The flush was probably made before that on 6ths street. That was where the board paired my 5’s and completed my hand.

The thing about a paired board is that they can create full houses. You can make them without the board pairing – drool. But, there were warning signs displayed here. We capped 6th with no worry by the flush and the other chasing with his two mediocre pair. Without that 5, I’d have ended up losing to two hands that drew out. Neither hand was strong enough to bet what was bet at any point in the hand prior to late play. I’m sure the tens full guy was the worst with the 3 downs playing and him chortling he’d made his boat on the river. The flush chaser had a straight and backdoor flush at the start without a premium card. That a hand that should almost always be folded. He did it to himself and was another chortler.

Now the tens full guy may not have been quite the total idiot until he became willing to cap. He either had 4’s with a T kicker or a pair of tens with a 4 and TT that made either two pair – tens up – or a set of tens. That’s normally a betting hand and he did that. I raised though which should have fired an alarm bell. He ignored that completely. You’ll also note we have six players on 4th and nobody folds. I get the lead on 5th and bet it and that does get one wise soul out of the hand. Even though there was another aces showing, that was another warning bell at Mr. 4T up. 6th brought two made hands. I lead out and four of us ended up playing the capped betting. Gotta love em. Never a caution light in any head. The flush is walking on water here and the one who will fold is evidently chasing to miss his flush. If you think I’m a bit hard on the guys, take a look at the starting odds.

cards             Win        %win     lose        %lose       tie  %tie     EV
5s 7c  6c   67619  13.52  432371  86.47   10  0.00  0.135
4s Td  4d   42999   8.60  456992  91.40    9  0.00  0.086
Js Jd  Jh  389372  77.87  110627  22.13    1  0.00  0.779

I don’t mean to say you would never want to play those hands. I’d need a huge reason to want to play them though. And, I’d want to know I was far and away the best player at the table who could lay down even a hand that did improve in the face of how things are playing. I might try to limp out the improvement but I am not going to get involved in multiple capping street with any thought beyond I’ve turned into a calling station. These weren’t prudent people. They never looked beyond their own hand.

For once things turned out as they should have. Best man won. Suckout artistes got burned. All hail the card fairy. I am not sure who the biggest idiot here is – might be me for playing stud at this level. People at them make ratty big hands with ratty starting hands all the time. It is hard to argue that this is a game of skill.

PokerStars Game #15124284598: 7 Card Stud Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/02/07 - 13:52:35 (ET)

Table ‘Roberta III’ 8-max

Seat 1: tnskjink ($5 in chips)

Seat 2: BLUDOG456 ($9.90 in chips)

Seat 3: TheDude209 ($13.75 in chips)

Seat 4: OrigDonnie ($9.35 in chips)

Seat 5: msrjaj ($11.60 in chips)

Seat 6: Buster1968x ($8.25 in chips)

Seat 7: Ken.P ($10 in chips)

Seat 8: dalegend22 ($18 in chips)

tnskjink: posts the ante $0.05

BLUDOG456: posts the ante $0.05

TheDude209: posts the ante $0.05

OrigDonnie: posts the ante $0.05

msrjaj: posts the ante $0.05

Buster1968x: posts the ante $0.05

Ken.P: posts the ante $0.05

dalegend22: posts the ante $0.05

*** 3rd STREET ***

Dealt to tnskjink [5s]

Dealt to BLUDOG456 [6d]

Dealt to TheDude209 [Ks]

Dealt to OrigDonnie [7h]

Dealt to msrjaj [6h]

Dealt to Buster1968x [4d]

Dealt to Ken.P [Js Jd Jh]

Dealt to dalegend22 [Ad]

Buster1968x: bets $0.25

Ken.P: calls $0.25

dalegend22: calls $0.25

tnskjink: calls $0.25

BLUDOG456: calls $0.25

TheDude209: raises $0.25 to $0.50

OrigDonnie: calls $0.50

msrjaj: folds

Buster1968x: calls $0.25

Ken.P: raises $0.25 to $0.75

dalegend22: calls $0.50

tnskjink: calls $0.50

BLUDOG456: calls $0.50

TheDude209: calls $0.25

OrigDonnie: calls $0.25

Buster1968x: calls $0.25

*** 4th STREET ***

Dealt to tnskjink [5s] [2c]

Dealt to BLUDOG456 [6d] [Qd]

Dealt to TheDude209 [Ks] [8s]

Dealt to OrigDonnie [7h] [2d]

Dealt to Buster1968x [4d] [Tc]

Dealt to Ken.P [Js Jd Jh] [5c]

Dealt to dalegend22 [Ad] [7d]

dalegend22: checks

tnskjink: checks

BLUDOG456: checks

TheDude209: checks

OrigDonnie: checks

Buster1968x: bets $0.25

Ken.P: raises $0.25 to $0.50

dalegend22: calls $0.50

tnskjink: calls $0.50

BLUDOG456: calls $0.50

TheDude209: calls $0.50

OrigDonnie: calls $0.50

Buster1968x: calls $0.25

*** 5th STREET ***

Dealt to tnskjink [5s 2c] [Qc]

Dealt to BLUDOG456 [6d Qd] [8h]

Dealt to TheDude209 [Ks 8s] [Qs]

Dealt to OrigDonnie [7h 2d] [4c]

Dealt to Buster1968x [4d Tc] [Qh]

Dealt to Ken.P [Js Jd Jh 5c] [Ah]

Dealt to dalegend22 [Ad 7d] [2h]

Ken.P: bets $0.50

dalegend22: calls $0.50

tnskjink: calls $0.50

BLUDOG456: calls $0.50

TheDude209: calls $0.50

OrigDonnie: folds

Buster1968x: calls $0.50

*** 6th STREET ***

Dealt to tnskjink [5s 2c Qc] [Jc]

Dealt to BLUDOG456 [6d Qd 8h] [2s]

Dealt to TheDude209 [Ks 8s Qs] [4h]

Dealt to Buster1968x [4d Tc Qh] [6s]

Dealt to Ken.P [Js Jd Jh 5c Ah] [5d]

Dealt to dalegend22 [Ad 7d 2h] [3c]

Ken.P: bets $0.50

dalegend22: folds

tnskjink: raises $0.50 to $1

BLUDOG456: folds

TheDude209: calls $1

Buster1968x: calls $1

Ken.P: raises $0.50 to $1.50

tnskjink: raises $0.50 to $2

Betting is capped

TheDude209: calls $1

Buster1968x: calls $1

Ken.P: calls $0.50

*** RIVER ***

Dealt to Ken.P [Js Jd Jh 5c Ah 5d] [Th]

dalegend22 said, “nh”

Ken.P: bets $0.50

tnskjink: raises $0.50 to $1

TheDude209: folds

Buster1968x: raises $0.50 to $1.50

Ken.P: raises $0.50 to $2

Betting is capped

tnskjink: calls $0.20 and is all-in

Buster1968x: calls $0.50

*** SHOW DOWN ***

Ken.P: shows [Js Jd Jh 5c Ah 5d Th] (a full house, Jacks full of Fives)

Buster1968x: mucks hand

Ken.P collected $1.60 from side pot

tnskjink: shows [7c 6c 5s 2c Qc Jc 3s] (a flush, Queen high)

msrjaj said, “nh”

Ken.P collected $23.35 from main pot

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot $25.35 Main pot $23.35. Side pot $1.60. | Rake $0.40

Seat 1: tnskjink showed [7c 6c 5s 2c Qc Jc 3s] and lost with a flush, Queen high

Seat 2: BLUDOG456 folded on the 6th Street

Seat 3: TheDude209 folded on the River

Seat 4: OrigDonnie folded on the 5th Street

Seat 5: msrjaj folded on the 3rd Street (didn’t bet)

Seat 6: Buster1968x mucked [4s Td 4d Tc Qh 6s Ts]

Seat 7: Ken.P showed [Js Jd Jh 5c Ah 5d Th] and won ($24.95) with a full house, Jacks full of Fives

Seat 8: dalegend22 folded on the 6th Street
ADDENDUM:

That’s just SUPER

Twod seem that “Now is the winter of our discontent…” I haven’t been quite as religious about reading all the stuff that affects poker. I do get to the popular (with me) blogs. That’s in the genre Poker Blogs but many aren’t any more loyal to poker these days than I can be.

Winter time is noted for the problems it causes. We’re all supposed to rush out and get a sun lamp so we don’t get depressed and suicidal; take our melanin pills; avoid alcohol. This is starting to sound like one of those horrid reports from the ‘health reporter’ on the 5 o’clock news telling us whether or not this is the week to drink red wine.

The exception is Linda – who is glorying in the 2 weeks each year that a Lasvegan doesn’t have to process the air about them. Visiting the other blogs isn’t helping my mid-winter blahs. Otis and Iggy seem hand in hand at least in the sense of politics and it’s allure. While the two may be at opposites with other bloggers on being blue or red or whatever, they are both properly cynical. That is Iggy’s stock in trade but Otis is usually Opie unless he redons his reporter hat. I’d throw Gene into the mix but his winter blahs seem to span the season in yo-yo fashion.

The problem is politics. We gets more Alice in Wonderland by the day. The news reporters are in ecstasy telling us over and over the under and over. Nobody seems bothered that all those gotchas the founding fathers threw into the Constitution were the product of cynics who knew the frailties and dangers of power seekers. We get all that in U.S. history and then go on our merry way ignoring all that in that sidetrack called life.

But there are a lot of things that are just super. We have the Super Users on Absolute and maybe Ultimate. We have the Super Deligates that may take the primary season away from the citizens that plodded through wind, rain, and snow to use their limited information to collectively do the right thing. The founders would recognize what is happening. To some extent, it is their warnings come true. Although, they could be elitists along with the rest of us when we get the chance as shown by the process to elect our President.

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