Poker Perambulation

Remember I said I had one ready to post and then all this silliness by Harrahs gave me fodder. Well, it is time to let it out into the world…

No, that title is not sending crypto secrets to my Al Qaida handler.* I am talking big bet and expectations. The only thing I like about Poker Tracker (building up to that review for a long while) is that it provides info that I’ve never bothered to work out. The last time I had any degree of expertise with spreadsheets – Lotus was king.

Over in the Chris Ferguson corner of this asylum, Maxie called out the gang. Seems her cohorts in crime are Moaning Minnies and Max had enough. Their idea of bad luck and hers differ in biblical proportions.

Well, your biblical flood is never as bad as mine. That’s human nature. I’ve always thought I wasn’t as lucky as the average guy. I’ll make a nice run; give half back … or worse. That isn’t for this week, month or even year. And it seems to run that way regardless of the levels I’ve played. But, I make a profit and that supposedly put me in the upper percentile of players.

missing graphic goes here

So here is the down and dirty on my play. It was exactly 17,900 hands as of 7/12. I think the show was “Who do you trust” where the moderator said something to the effect, “Will the real Ken Prevo please stand up. Look at those BB’s.

OK, I’m selective in the ‘higher’ limits. I’ll hit and run given the chance. All session have more winning than losing. But am I the genius killing the lowest limit or the donk in the .50-1? You don’t play almost 18K hands so far for the year and be a hit and run specialist. Yet I sure was in the 2-4. I can’t tell you just what I am beyond a guy that’s had the same profit for most of this time frame. I’ve been up nicely from right here but down nicely too.

Maxie’s tale of suckout are brutal. The others quote their share. The luck component affects us all. We here about players that ‘rampage’ small amounts into big bankrolls. We sit at a table and watch some guy across the felt just killing everybody and doing playing every hand. You know what? The least lucky among us can do that. The real path though is slogging one foot ahead of the other. Trip and fall and get back up. One of the things that PokerTracker does is remember every hand and tell me how profitable that luckbox really is. Surprising how many are red with big numbers.

The other day I played a big pot with a set against an aggressive guy. I rivered and showed 7’s full to his set of 10’s. They don’t all go the other way. Yet just a table or two before I lost 5 nice pots in a row. Each of them was to a rivered hand that I had beat on 6^th street. The obvious we remember. But much of it is boring exchanges. Those were darn good to me at .25-.50 and nasty one level up.

The difference between tournaments and ring is that luck is a much greater factor because the blinds are progressing. While at ring you don’t need to be that lucky. Some of my best session were winning a few hands and folding beyond the norm on others. I won’t call that luck. Yes, I can be a luckbox too. The 2-4 results magnify that. Even with PokerTracker I cannot tell you whether I am lucky or unlucky or just where in between. I’ve seen every hand and lost some amazers. Won some too. I’ve done it from early levels to late. Bad reads have, at times, led to golden results. And I know I have a lot of company doing so.

So, what’s luck? Luck is getting a top hand or one better than ‘them’ where the permutations number 2,598,960. The best hand is a Royal Spade Flush. The worst is the 23457 rainbow. I’ve had four royals. The last two came within two weeks of each other. It also coincided with a winning streak. I guess I’m unusually lucky at getting Royal Flushes.

Is there luck in tournaments? Hell, yes. But, most of it is manufactured. The structure demands it and requires that we find the suckouts rather than they find our opponent. In tournament poker, cards are less significant than elsewhere. The extreme proof is Jack Straus’ chip and a chair win of the WSOP. Significantly, he is also attributed the bluff shown in Rounders. Interestingly, his only other bracelet was at duce-seven draw where you want the worst hand.

*Regarding the first line in today’s blog: I figure the CIA’s scanner will flag me and a human will stop by to see what’s going on. Thanks for the page hit, Mr. CIA. Hopefully, Mr. War Department will also contribute a page hit. You guys and your UIGEA keep me from getting a raise; so it is only fair.

 

ADDENDUM:

 

I’ve never been the best at donating. I’m trying to make up for it a bit. I’ve found and then touted a number of charities here. Most are off my list. When I start getting professional solicitation, I go looking for another. 60 Minutes redid a broadcast for my next one. It is RAM at ramusa.com. They provide medical assistance to uninsured or under insured American. I’ve been in both categories and was lucky. They also operate overseas in areas of great need. If you’ve got a few extra bucks, this looks like a very effective use of a donation.

http://www.cbs.com/thunder/swf/rcpHolderCbs-prod.swf#!flashvars#link=http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/i_video/main500251.shtml?id=3898008n&releaseURL=http://release.theplatform.com/content.select?pid=avFoXlAfQzdb9fMb4zNqBntFKPIrn84_&partner=newsembed&autoPlayVid=false&prevImg=http://thumbnails.cbsig.net/CBS_Production_News/640/981/60min_pelley_3208_480×360.jpg

The above points to the 60-minutes piece on RAM. If you want to reference a Utube piece it is about a dozen characters. That is a significant difference between new and old media. Old media is ponderous. First things first put the viewer last as this ’simple’ URL testifies.

This entry was posted on Saturday, July 26th, 2008 at 1:59 pm and is filed under Tournaments. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.