Bluffing up 28.7% — News at 6

No, not at my tables – although sometimes it feels like it. Poker is certainly about bluffing. But, doing that isn’t any guarantee of success. Out in the real world, the bluff works much better. Collectively we are a gullible lot. Playing a bit of poker should reduce that a bit. But, the goal everywhere is to be +EV and a lot of situations in the real world will only do that on a bluff.

Global warming is a bluff. The early data was cooked more than a first attempt ,dirt road meth lab. Most of us accept it today. The path to that was mapped by Sierra Club fundraisers decades ago. Is it right or wrong? Nobody really knows but the scare side has most of us in the do-something-now camp.

We can all pull off the data/claim that the calamity is because of those other guys. In the world of data and studies, a six degrees of Kevin Bacon run will get you to cooked data. And that goes for those for or against.

With that in mind here’s the lattest skinny.

• 5-10% hooked on the Internet

• major ones include online gambling and gaming, sex sites, compulsive surfers and even addiction to eBay

• In Taiwan and China it is up to 30%

Would it surprise you that the two folks citing all this are involved with outfits that include “Center for Internet Recovery” in their title. Does one of them having authored a recent book raise any red flags?

In the contentious world of the Presidential contest, you can fact check both sides and find congenital lying. The big bluff is non-partisan. You don’t need 6-degrees of anything to find bluffers in politics. 1-degree works just fine.

Moving on to our favorite bluff brings us into the fantasy world of Spenser Bachus. If you jump over on YouTube you will be brought into his fantasy. Just before the 3-minute mark, he and evidently 45 attorney generals tell us their bluff: 74% of those using the internet to gamble are “addicted” to it.

Bluffing is well documented in every stage of life. We do it on the playground and in the congress. We are all students of the big lie of Joseph Goebbels. Sometimes it is a semi-legitimate post-oak move and others are naked bluffs. When we do them we’re calculating how the situations adds or detracts to our potential for success with a read of some type. In the real world we almost never have that degree of accuracy.

We don’t manipulate the raw data as required to arrive at a fully informed decision. Instead we rely on data from others and we should realize their vested interest. However, if they are ‘friends’ and hold a view similar to our own, we use that info as our own — regardless. The poker analogy might be to allow the other guy to play our hand. Put Ultimate Bet’s super users in mind to see your success rate.

Legitimate studies of Internet gambling – or at least those that espouse our view – point to something in the area of 0.6-.7 of a percent that are addicted gamblers. The thing about such dry figures detailing the lack of change over decades at these modest levels is that an advocate then point to a specific situation that the guy on the street finds deplorable. That less that 1% often stand out. They make the 6 o’clock news and the blurb isn’t complimentary. 0.6 % gets ignored.

The big lie and our table bluff are fellow travelers. They depend on others humanity to prosper. It is the one +EV thing that every poker players should take from the game.

ADDENDUM:

PokerStars did an update to their software a couple of days ago. One of the new features is one my tired old eyes appreciates – especially at the high speed tables. There is a bullseye next to the previous hand data. If you click on it you’ll see the results for the last hand. If it is your turn, that will be removed so you can play. The hand displayed is grayed slightly and occupies the same window as the running game.

These hand histories at stud are most informative at Stars. FullTilt randomizes the position of the down cards while Stars shows them in their proper order. FullTilt really does it a preferred way as the card order isn’t apparent in a bricks and mortar environment where the players frequently shuffle their downs to avoid disclosing how they drew.

This entry was posted on Thursday, July 31st, 2008 at 5:07 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.