I’ve tried to quit twice before. This isn’t about quitting. I might be back. Whether or not they’d want that is another topic. I might blog a bit at my old spot. If I do I’ll mention it in the forum or you can use it’s PM feature to message me to get the location I decide on. I guarantee it won’t be 3-5 a week.

I’d be stretching to talk principle above pigheadedness. It is about the all-in protection yet it isn’t. Linda left a comment about that. She pointed out that FullTilt had gone the same route. She said she knew from checking for a friend that it happened where it cost him a 30K pot.

Now, I’ll never lose that kind of pot or one that has a significant impact of any kind. It is, like I said, principle or pigheadedness. I’ve programmed for a living and know that if you don’t watch it the program takes on a life of its own. It is a mix of competing ideas that pit parties against each other. That is the case here. All-in was the squeaky wheel that needed greasing against a limited group of angle shooters. Rather than disable the feature for only the angle shooters – which is a simple change – they axed it for all and got more hands per hour as a side or the shadow benefit.

I ranted about the situation and now it seems that it is time to fish or cut bait. With that, I am not playing poker. It is just about impossible to blog about poker without playing some. That is the rub. I also haven’t had a vacation in that period and figure that it is time for one of those.

What makes it really hard is that the people I’m leaving are people I really like. Yes, it is built around affiliate marketing. But, it is at a professional level in the background. I’ve seen them resolve issues. If you give your affiliate to Bubba and Tom’s Excellent Blog Adventure and have a problem, you are back to the skill vs luck angle. Pokerworks is more than just a nice guy. They deserve your business.

My final bow is to those who’ve managed to read a few of these. My idea has been to try to come at things from different approaches. Poker is a competitive pastime and I’m a competitive person. But we can still be gentlemen about it. Looking back, it wasn’t the wins or losses that embarrassed me but when I stopped being a gentleman. I’m sure I preached to the choir on that one as you’d quit reading if you missed the point. So, I thank the Ladies and the Gentlemen that stopped by.

If I go on, it will get maudlin. So a simple thanks and you damn well know who you are.

Off to hiatus…

ADDENDUM:

This is from a WCOOP final table. Why the guy was disconnected is anybody’s guess. I am pretty certain though that the guy was really sick about it. I am pretty confident that the circumstances deny that he’s angle shooting. But, this is about as -EV as it can get. He’s about a 2:1 favorite against that weak and disjointed flush draw.

Like me, the Internet is an imperfect human device. But, the net will always repair itself. It just can’t do it on the timetable sites enforce. I have one of the largest ISP’s out there and am not alone. Well, actually I am because neither Comcast or the poker sites give a rat’s ass when it happens.

Then there is global warning with Gore and his Hollywood PhD wanabes. They ride in the same greenmobile as the folks who hate carbon. You get monthly fund raising mail from them asking you to join them in saving the planet.

One of our local weathermen in my younger days was John Coleman. John was one of those guys that actually knew what he was talking about. After a tour on Good Morning America where you may have seen him, he went on to found The Weather Channel. He’s retired to doing the weather for KUSI in San Diego.  He stopped in town and by the local PBS for an interview.  Not offering up what the normal PBS listeners like to hear.  They are more avant garde than the rest of us.  The following night the show was full of ‘viewer feedback’ that wasn’t all that complimentary.

This is his early statement on global warming:

It is the greatest scam in history. I am amazed, appalled and highly offended by it. Global Warming; It is a SCAM. Some dastardly scientists with environmental and political motives manipulated long term scientific data to create an illusion of rapid global warming. Other scientists of the same environmental whacko type jumped into the circle to support and broaden the “research” to further enhance the totally slanted, bogus global warming claims. Their friends in government steered huge research grants their way to keep the movement going. Soon they claimed to be a consensus. Read the rest of the original blog here.

He also did a speech to a local group entitled: Global Warming and the Price of a Gallon of Gas
by John Coleman

Most of us aren’t trained in the physical sciences. Gore and friends rely on that in their ‘discussion’ of global warming. They talk about 25,000 scientist that have signed on to their views. It is also a popular topic supported by both our Presidential candidates.

Read and make up your own mind.

ADDENDUM:

I picked up a new game at Best Buy after my doctor’s appointment the other day. It is Two Worlds and came with the expansion pack for $19.95. I played it today instead of my normal time at the tables. I got into it more than I’ve been getting in to poker of late. It was a nice change.

]]> http://pokerworks.com/blogs/jkprevo/2008/10/03/hot-times/feed/ http://pokerworks.com/blogs/jkprevo/2008/10/01/capital/ http://pokerworks.com/blogs/jkprevo/2008/10/01/capital/#comments Wed, 01 Oct 2008 10:33:17 +0000 jkprevo http://pokerworks.com/blogs/jkprevo/?p=915 You hear the term in period plays. It comes from the actor referred to as his lordship and is often linked to “my good man”. It is also our bankroll that we take to the tables. We then practice bankroll management or should if longevity is our goal. You just can’t over commit and prosper without refunding.

A great example of that is our government. They really aren’t into bankroll management. They are damn good, though, at refunding – compliments of you and me.

Government is growing and that growth is by leaps and bound. Whether Republican or Democrat, it is the era of big government. We’ve moved from capitalism to socialism. I really don’t have a problem with socialism. It just doesn’t work well with a capitalist society. England proved that fairly well. You can have components of it but you can’t really embrace it with excessive national resources. The Scandinavian have somewhat pulled it off. It is a combination of a limited population and a boutique economy. That isn’t a description of this country.

Most of us are funding our accounts with a minuscule portion of our income. Our success or failure at the table won’t move us up or down from our middle income ranges. It is an encounter with managing disposable income for most of us. It might earn us a bit nicer vacation or cause us to skip a fine dining experience. No big deal.

Well, our economy is a big deal. It is a growth oriented one. That is hard to maintain and is capital intensive. Big government is the antithesis of the capitalist paradigm. We don’t have to embrace capitalism unless we want to maintain our excessive American lifestyle. There are folks that reject that and get a little plot where they live on a subsistence basis. Most of us aren’t looking for a hippie commune lifestyle.

You, I, and all those greedy corporations are after the pot of gold. The nation is set up in such a way that it accommodates it better than in any other country. Both parties are moving us away from that. Their goal is a more equitable society and world. That isn’t a +EV situation for you and your children/grandchildren. The world can’t come up to our lifestyle. The new goal would be to drop to a new level that floats all boats.

We idealist may see socialized medicine as more than a solution; it is a right. We point to a number of Euro models that have it with varied degrees of success. There’s probably a way to get that here – at least to a greater degree. But, those without insurance are not taken out behind the barn an shot. Society accommodates their plight to an extent through charity and government programs.

The thing that the U.S. ignores is bankroll management coupled to disposable income. That works for our poker play. That doesn’t work in solving all inequity. The country is built on inequity. The better company or idea triumphs over the weaker ones. It adds to our employment rosters with time. We expand and contract constantly. That is a part of natural selection. I’ve lived through a lot worse than I’m seeing today. Everyone reading this has a higher living standard than our parents.

So, when you listen to the politicians’ ads and the media sound bites, think about what got us all to this point and if a 700-billion dollar band-aid will do away with the owwie. Government is turning into our mommies. Mommy kiss it works for that owwie. That doesn’t work when there is a threat of gangrene.

McCain and Obama are owwie kissers. And we all need to tell them and our other elected officials what to kiss.

ADDENDUM:

I been working on Linda’s added info about FullTilt going without all-in protection too. I’m about to a decision about how to play or not from this point out. I’ll come up with a decision asap. I haven’t found the right or even a possible compromise at this point.

———————-

False sense of security?

Originally Posted by Alex Scott

I can confirm that this is correct. It is not possible to draw a card which you have already discarded at PokerStars, even in Triple Draw.

Incidentally, having the ability to spread games with both a blinds and ante is on our wish list. Obviously if we get it developed, draw is one of the prime candidates for such a structure.

Regarding 8-handed - I remember supporting that when the decision was originally made (quite a while ago now), but research and a great deal of discussion led to 6-max being chosen (hey, at least we didn’t go with 5-max, ugh). I believe graphics issues were a factor in this (it can be difficult to fit 8 lots of 5 cards on the table screen without overlapping something important).

The above thread is from 2plus2. It covers any game where the deck can be resuffled because the dealer has run out of cards. This happens from time to time in a number of games. Just what games it applies to aren’t that clear. For example the normal thing that happens in a stud game when the cards get short is to deal community cards at the end. This may or may not have changed; I doubt it has. In draw games where it can occur not getting paired affects “the luck of the draw”. This is a MAJOR change in cards. This affect the game’s odds. Yes, the ‘improvement’ would appear to be across the board. But, it affects the game and separates online play from Bricks and Mortar.

There has been a on-going conversation by the conspiracy crowd about stacked or action decks being used at sites. That could be done by the software. But, most sites are audited to show their shuffle falls within the standard deviations expected. This ‘new idea’ alters that significantly.

I guess we could all ignore PokerStars’ innovations like this and all-in protection. But both change the game as it is played online. All-in was a change to accommodate the nature of online play. But, this goes far beyond that. The protection aspect is -EV. This is actually +EV but – again – it impacts the odds and fairness of the random shuffle.

Worst case:

You start a 2-7 game with 2-3-5-7 and everybody plays and they all do big draws.  In the process you dump 2 cards on each draw.  Assuming somehow the reshuffle takes place on the final draw, you eliminate 2 stinking cards while they’ve a ton of cards they can’t/won’t get.   That sucks!

ADDENDUM:

I am indebted to Iggy for sending me to a thread about Kahnawake that’s has to scare all the sites using their server facilities. We’ve all had a say about the Norton-Absolute-Ultimate situation. But, that now appears just the tip of the iceberg.

It is time for some of the major overseas sites to reconsider the U.S. Skins have long been a staple in the online community. Holding companies could create such skins and provide the overseas sites with deniable plausibility that listed companies are involved directly in the U.S. Market.

]]> http://pokerworks.com/blogs/jkprevo/2008/09/26/more-pokerstars-weirdness/feed/ http://pokerworks.com/blogs/jkprevo/2008/09/25/not-a-weekend-update/ http://pokerworks.com/blogs/jkprevo/2008/09/25/not-a-weekend-update/#comments Thu, 25 Sep 2008 12:27:35 +0000 jkprevo http://pokerworks.com/blogs/jkprevo/?p=908 No Saturday Night Live quality jokes. Just a discussion of my ‘progress’ (jopke?) playing stud. Before you rush to another blog. A lot applies regardless of the type of low rent seat you occupy.These days I’m playing at FullTilt. I’ve pretty much quit at PokerStars over the all-in changes. I’m seeing the occasional loss of connection and that isn’t going to cost me a nice pot at Tilt but would at Stars. But that is a side issue.

Yesterday, I referred to an article on loose play. It sure happened at Stars and it is even worse – so far – at Tilt. The play is amazingly bad. You could call it loose but it often goes beyond that. People show up with the idea they will dominate the table with the betting and they’ll do it over and over with rat cards in front of them. The next guy thinks position means something and will make a late bet with 3-5-offsuit in front of him. There is nothing like getting a nice concealed hand but that doesn’t happen as regularly as they try to represent.

The next guy seems sane and then joins the mayhem. It seems their gambling gene kicks in. They see the calling stations river folks and seem to think they can pull that off. Name a donk idea and you’ll see it practiced at those tables.

I’d like to move up but I don’t have the roll to do it. I could at Stars and was showing a profit a bit higher at 1-2 and 2-4. But, I’m kinda stuck playing .25-50 with the Tilt roll. I give a bit of .50-1 a go but it doesn’t co-operate and I’m back to building.

I’ve gotten comfortable with decisions at stud. It took a while. While we all quickly learn that it starts with a royal and degenerates to an X-high hand, stud’s added feature isn’t your hand’s quality as much as the potential for other’s making a bigger hand. When a good stud player says, “It isn’t what you win as much as what you don’t lose.” he’s referring to that. You pay off concealed hand regularly enough. But making too many crying calls can get deadly.

I can track cards fairly well and guesstimate my odds. I have Stud Inspector installed that does it to perfection with actual odds based on cards in play. I don’t really see a need for it most of the time. But, I’ll occasionally validate a decision. It tells me the exact odds for filling my flush or whatever. I seldom refer to it but it can help at times. PokerTracker for Stud is next to worthless, IMO. It builds a database but there’s very limited analysis and that’s the difference between a simple spreadsheet view and good applications providing info you have to struggle for otherwise.

I guess the annoying part of getting to the point I’m at is reduction in variance. When you figure out how dumb some action is, you get close to being a grinder. Without community cards you learn a lot more about an opponent. My of those are hard to respect. That’s a form of tilt that I can usually avoid. Not always but usually. While the variance of big swings tends to go away, those adrenalin high swings up go away too.

My tendency is toward aggression at times. It is great to promote a perceived advantage. It is fun! But about the only place I can do that is in the bi-weekly HORSE game we’ve been doing. At the normal (aggressive/loose) table, you have to play a more passive game. At times it almost seems that the better your hand the more passive you play. That doesn’t seem close to right but think about it. The mistake most make at doing that is never changing gears. Reads can really approach obvious levels.

I do run into tables where loose and aggressive reach near biblical proportions. Usually, I just go find another table but occasionally hang around. That becomes boring waiting for a hand but it can be a truly lucrative experience. And, if the cards don’t show up, equally frustrating. I can often do well at such tables but it is much fun.

I still haven’t finished the Sklansky-Malmuth-Zee book. I should. It has good info. (I’ll attribute that to Ray Zee… ) It goes beyond West’s Book (which I think is still being remaindered by The Gambler’s Book Store) but West is a much easier read that will get you 80% there in figuring out stud.

So, there’s a bit of my wanderings in the land of Stud. It is still a challenge that I can enjoy. It is a strange enjoyment. I still hate limit play and pray some site well introduce spread limit.

ADDENDUM:

I don’t know about you but I’m ready for the elections to be behind us. I guess I could live with the posturing in the Presidential race. What destructive is the moving around by the congress. Every time they flip-flop it cost us another left lung.

I don’t like McCain but I have to give him props on going back to work on ‘the bailout’ and Obama loses a bit by demanding he stay on the campaign and show up for the debate. Senators have a responsibility and it isn’t small. I guess Obama could be missed here but McCain is a strong member who could make a difference. I just wish I thought it was the right difference.

Obama is right when he says the system needs fixing. But, I have less faith in him and his hidden agenda than I do with McCain and his. And, what little he does reveal scares more than help me have the warm fuzzies.

So, his last two posts have been about games that are ‘too loose’ and we’ve all been there and done that. His example is holding AK and popping it with 4 callers. He like the situation. I threw it in a poker calculator against 4 random hands and got:

Monte carlo simulation results from Poker Calculator 1.1.4.1

Texas Hold’em, 100000 combinations tested.

Hand | AcKs | xx | xx | xx | xx |

——+————+————+————+————+————+

Win | 31339 | 16047 | 16142 | 15854 | 16050 |

Draw | 1994 | 2050 | 2025 | 2015 | 2048 |

Lose | 66667 | 81903 | 81833 | 82131 | 81902 |

——+————+————+————+————+————+

Win% | 32.24% | 16.97% | 17.05% | 16.76% | 16.97% |

——+————+————+————+————+————+

AcKs:

High Card win: 146 draw: 12 lose: 19474

Pair win: 11673 draw: 385 lose: 33503

Two Pair win: 11495 draw: 616 lose: 10660

Three of a Kind win: 2544 draw: 39 lose: 1817

Straight win: 1996 draw: 561 lose: 773

Flush win: 1675 draw: 38 lose: 255

Full House win: 1676 draw: 327 lose: 185

Quads win: 123 draw: 16 lose: 0

Straight Flush win: 11 draw: 0 lose: 0

xx:

High Card win: 0 draw: 4 lose: 17286

Pair win: 1887 draw: 161 lose: 41356

Two Pair win: 5191 draw: 479 lose: 17922

Three of a Kind win: 2403 draw: 105 lose: 2294

Straight win: 2916 draw: 980 lose: 1215

Flush win: 1669 draw: 38 lose: 1217

Full House win: 1805 draw: 277 lose: 588

Quads win: 149 draw: 6 lose: 25

Straight Flush win: 27 draw: 0 lose: 0

xx:

High Card win: 0 draw: 1 lose: 17233

Pair win: 1932 draw: 174 lose: 41460

Two Pair win: 5140 draw: 501 lose: 17684

Three of a Kind win: 2457 draw: 107 lose: 2340

Straight win: 2893 draw: 940 lose: 1231

Flush win: 1768 draw: 38 lose: 1282

Full House win: 1785 draw: 259 lose: 575

Quads win: 140 draw: 5 lose: 27

Straight Flush win: 27 draw: 0 lose: 1

xx:

High Card win: 0 draw: 4 lose: 17322

Pair win: 1859 draw: 186 lose: 41416

Two Pair win: 5116 draw: 489 lose: 17875

Three of a Kind win: 2464 draw: 96 lose: 2435

Straight win: 2872 draw: 943 lose: 1282

Flush win: 1687 draw: 38 lose: 1232

Full House win: 1673 draw: 253 lose: 544

Quads win: 149 draw: 6 lose: 25

Straight Flush win: 34 draw: 0 lose: 0

xx:

High Card win: 0 draw: 3 lose: 17276

Pair win: 1920 draw: 189 lose: 41494

Two Pair win: 5102 draw: 509 lose: 17746

Three of a Kind win: 2401 draw: 111 lose: 2330

Straight win: 2890 draw: 951 lose: 1225

Flush win: 1760 draw: 38 lose: 1258

Full House win: 1801 draw: 240 lose: 549

Quads win: 143 draw: 7 lose: 24

Straight Flush win: 33 draw: 0 lose: 0

OK, he is ahead preflop but not by a huge amount. How the hand then plays out is anybody’s guess. The pot in his example is $100 with his $20 bet happening in a $1-2 game. He’s certainly right in describing the table as loose. We’re looking at a 10x bet with 4 callers. Is he going to make the $50 continuation bet if he misses. He talks about starting with a $300 stack and that’d put $70 at risk. OK, one raises his obvious continuation bet on a rat board. What’s his move? The pot has $150 and he needs $50 to call for very nice 3:1 odds. But, he doesn’t have a hand and is looking at 6 out for roughly 4:1 odds here.

Of course he might have hit the flop and be nicely ahead. That was the hope with the nice starting hand. But, the conversation is about loose. His approach is the standard one of promoting big hands. He recognizes implied odds and seems to discount it because he’s ‘only’ play with $300. But, that is 150 BB. That gives implied odds to a lot of folks. I can think of Fuel55 being in such a hand with his old friend 55. Noted Poker Authority’s example actually panders to good ol’ Fuel with the following:

Furthermore, you can look at the flop and gauge the danger factor. If the flop is K T 9 , then sure, worry about your top pair. But if it’s K 8 5 , you are a solid favorite to be ahead of four opponents with junk hands.

He has made the classic boner, IMO. He’s playing aggressor at a table of them. That’s another good players hope. A loose table isn’t necessarily one where you are the one solid player. The guy sitting with 20 in the pot and a speculative hand possibly doesn’t have the pot odds to call but he does have the implied odd to see a flop. NPA think that last flop a weak situation for his opponents. Well, you just can’t look at it that way. If it was a ratty pot from a min-raise or just call, he’d have been in great shape. Here, it is fraught with danger of his own making. That may be a hand that is an easy win as a modest pot. Here you’ve got implied odds coming out your ears – even with what he has behind him.

I won’t argue that he didn’t have a decent hand. But, with the table playing the way it is, he’s pressing a small advantage to the extreme. It is like the old saw about AA. “You either win an average pot or lose a big one.” He built the pot. And that’s a double edged sword.

My tendency is to play low ball at a table of loose players. They are going to build the pot without much interference on my part. It seems the lucrative way to play such a table. Even then TPTK isn’t god. But, the pot size lets you live on without yelling for the chip runner. Too loose can show up when we look in the mirror

ADDENDUM:

It appears that Congress – instead of our Lord – is our savior. The bail out rolls on. The following quote is from what Congress believes will lead us to the promise land:

Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.

That is a lot like playing poker with a super user account. Except the other guy knows your hand too. We are ready to put 700-mil on the table. It will be used to buy up all those junk mortgage packages. But, there are smart folks out there beside our Secretary. And, believe it or not, there is a similar amount out there in the private sector willing to buy up mortgage packages. The problem is the sellers know that the value currently offered on many isn’t even close to the actual value. This is a lot like some of the junk bond attacks in the past. You’re looking for hidden value. Look folks, you have to trust the markets to not only tank from stupidity but get righted by intelligence. It has always been thus. Bubbles pop and the distressed good get picked up as value buys.

JB won it. He had a nice stack that he worked to perfection. He’s a good table captain if you give him the chance. I did stick around to the end and the head’s up certainly didn’t have me worried about staying around past my bed time. JB has the ability to get smart-nasty.

There was a bit of chatter about not playing well. Maybe. I mentioned to one player that he wasn’t bad – like he’d just said — but just liked to play big pots. It a bit of the TPTK mentality taken to a collection of games. I’ll use stud as the example as I’m playing that a lot.

I see this a lot. You’ve bet all the way and there is a guy either willing to cap or raising your river bet. He shows you two pair and probably missing or barely one in the premium category. The average hand at stud is a set. Flush and straights often lose. Boat over boat happens regularly enough. We can all be bet off a winning hand at times. But, pot odds when you’ve fired all the way are going to get a river call. It may be a crying one but it still a call. People ignore that a lot. It leads to your own demise.

Lets use an example.  You have A44 two-suited.  That a hand you might raise with in situational play or a pure loose-aggressive. But, you push it hard even against a raise at times and you river another ace.  You’ve exposed a tenancy that might have been working even a bit more than it should.  You might have been better folding the hand at that point.  One time you’ll get away with it with a lot of folks.  Do it a lot and you are going to get used by a decent player stalking your play.  The flip side is that as the decent player you salivate and salivate and never get the cards to play it out.  You’ve got to change gears when the need arises.

At times table dynamics have you playing a read. Some games provide a position advantage. But, in the average game you’ll need to bring the goods far more than you’ll pull off a good bluff. And, you’ll need to vary your game enough to avoid having your tendency used against you. If there is a weak part of our little group, that nails it. I think JB used that a couple of times to stick with a bit weaker holding than he’d normally promote hard. He also had it used against him once – losing to a pair of ducks isn’t desirable. When JB starts firing bullets with a big stack, he doesn’t reload and is often on full auto. You can’t wait for card if you are playing him.

ADDENDUM:

I watched a bit of Obama on 60-minutes. Croft tried to draw him out but Obama did some great broken field running and Croft just never got a tackle in. On the flip side Obama was all smoke and mirrors in the process. If anybody came away from it better informed, they started from a very low threshold,

—————-

I see that the two big investment banks surviving (Morgan & Goldman) have applied for regular (holding) bank status.  This would keep them above water but it would also set up a condition much like AIG.  They do need to rebuild capital but doing it using the fed, overnight rate loans and the FDIC would lead to another AIG but that could be in spades.  The normal banks contribute to the FDIC fund that takes over failed banks.  The cost associated with that is predicated on normal bank activity with large deposit acting as their investable capital.  Investment banks don’t hit that mark.  They are far more volitile in their day-to-day operations but would have all the benefits of their more conservative fellows.  I mentioned a while back that it was Clinton and a Republican congress passing financial market reforms that let an AIG happen.  Lets not start another group down that road with even more costly outcome potential.

]]> http://pokerworks.com/blogs/jkprevo/2008/09/22/sundays-for-praying/feed/ http://pokerworks.com/blogs/jkprevo/2008/09/20/sense/ http://pokerworks.com/blogs/jkprevo/2008/09/20/sense/#comments Sat, 20 Sep 2008 09:01:48 +0000 jkprevo http://pokerworks.com/blogs/jkprevo/?p=886 It is a small word. And we tend to equate a bigger word — intelligence — with it. Individually, we aren’t all that bright. And I for one have the college grades to prove it. The founding fathers were thought brighter and we’ve a couple of hundred years of proving them right.

The Constitution and Bill of Rights play upon that. When we’ve tried to add to that, we managed as much failure as success. But the framework still exists.

Before I get truly deadly and bore you stiff…enjoy…

I got the following email from a friend:

It worries me that someone as intelligent as you are could possibly think that McCain -Palin will be anything other than an absolute disaster for this country.  I am seriously considering moving elsewhere if they come into office.  I seem to wake up every morning being a part owner of either another mortgage company or big insurance company, and quite frankly, I have enough on my plate without helping to guide trillion dollar companies that McCain has bent over backwards since before Keating to make sure they can rape the country with no one looking over their shoulders.  While I agree that government is sometimes more the problem than the solution, this country has absolutely gone to shit with these people at the helm.  We have gone from guiding light to international joke, and my kids owe trillions of dollars.  Obama cannot possibly do worse, and I’m betting he’ll do a hell of a lot better, because HE HAS A BRAIN IN HIS HEAD!!!

If that were a requirement for President, Jimmy Carter might go down in history as our greatest. Instead he was an unmitigated disaster comparable to the way many many view our current President. The knock on Truman – especially compared with his predecessor – was that he was a shallow intellect. Truman made his mistakes but he was right most of the time. Nixon was the best poker player of the lot and had a lot of bright people around him and you know how that turned out. The thing is there has never been a President with all the answers – except in election years.

The current contention is the economy. Clinton understood that and commented on it. Interesting enough, Bush I shot himself in the foot raising taxes. Here we are a few years later and the electorate is glorying in a guy looking for change based on higher taxes.

My friend is unhappy with the bail outs going on. Well, my friend this was all set up in a Financial bill that blurred the line between what was traditionally bankings roll and other institutions. That allowed the investment bankers and companies like AIG to compete in areas which had been the bailiwick of staid old-line banks. That bill was signed – with fanfare – by William Jefferson Clinton. That’s the guy who is lauded for balancing the budget and fiscal genius. And, at the time, some bright folks were saying that what is happening today could take place. Keating was small potatoes against these guys.

Yes, McCain was accused of the participating in the saving and loan debacle. But, all they ever proved was he took their donations and that happened on both sides of the isle. He made it through hearings but you can never be cleared in politics.

McCain does seem like an unmitigated disaster waiting to happen. He really has a weak grasp of the economy. He’s very likely to be a do-nothing President without some bright folks coming onto his team. Hopefully, he or his advisors would know a few if he got elected. And, political ads to the contrary of course, he really doesn’t always claim to have all the answers. That does bode well. Like I said early, the better Presidents look for answers instead of claiming them in advance.

That brings us to Obama. He is claiming the answers from every stump he can find. He doesn’t share those answers much with us common folks but that par for any campaign. I guess if we knew what any of them think they’d lose our vote. But he has let pieces slip. He said:

• Raise taxes on ‘the wealthy’

• Raise the Capital Gains tax

• Recently said, he’d hold off on the Capital Gains until the economy strengthened

• His latest ad says he can’t disclose his plan in a weak economy.  (Holy Shit, it must be a real disaster if disclosing it would tank the current economy.)
  

That isn’t a lot to disclose his thinking but it is a start. Being on a fixed income and paying few taxes, I might even benefit under his plan. I don’t see why I should but hell we all took that Bush’s 600-bucks with glee. And as long as you take it from the other guy – especially if we can call him a fat cat – that makes it better.

A lot of those ‘fat cats’ are our successful local businesses. They aren’t AIG or Enron or a host of other large companies with staffs working in Washington. They are much smaller but they are responsible for more jobs in this country than all the others. And, the money Obama takes from them is money they might use to create more jobs to grow the GDP and help pay off some of the debt you say we’ve pawned off on your kids. That may be the case but they’ll need a strong economy to pay it off. Could your idea and complaint actually make it harder for them?

Over half of the population owns stock. That means they are subject to capital gains outside 401’s or IRA’s. It is a form of their savings for the most part. When you take that in more taxes you are limiting economic growth. Obama even acknowledges that by saying he’d wait until the economy improved to see it implemented. And, throw in that capital gains fits in with the ‘death tax’ that often causes a business to be sold with loss of jobs or left crippled for their children who are going to be sharing the same burden as your kids.

We did have a surplus under Clinton. Why? He worked with a strong Republican congress far better than Bush – who claimed being ecumenical politically – managed. We had a lot of reform take place with the two co-operating. The most egregious of the entitlements were revised and put a lot of folks back in the work force. He also benefited from the growth of the Internet. That brought added efficiencies to all – including big corporations. More productive businesses could expand their workforce because they were more competitive. And, the Federal Reserve was very accommodating in increasing money supply at near exponential rises. That lead to “the bubble” and the problems that came to Bush early. His solution was to spend like a Democrat. (That isn’t fair; there are bright Dems that saw the problem arising too.) The Fed remained accommodating and that led to the latest “housing bubble” because too much money isn’t a problem for Wall Street and others – at least initially.

My friend accused me of ‘liking’ McCain. Well, I’m anything but sold on any of them. You can scream about change – both are. But, it is all the same old same old. I’d have to say McCain is actually talking more change but I really don’t think he stands a snowballs chance of pulling it off. He gets pulled in too many directions by an ego that won’t quit. Not that the other guys ego isn’t his equal. Obama’s ideas aren’t new – anything but. They are the new deal and fair deal repackaged. He is Lyndon Johnson in Technicolor. Don’t even get me started on his ideas about foreign policy where he’s appears as inept in the same way Bush got knocked in his first campaign. You’ve got to be a true optimist to chart him a better course.

Luckily, the nation stands a fair chance it will survive and even prosper over time. What really disappoints me is I’m not likely to be around to see how it turns out. Unlike your kids, I’ve lost my vested interest. I know it will be hard if either Congress or the Courts can’t step to the plate and make the three part system of checks and balances work as intended.

I guess Obama scares me most because he’s likely to have a complaint congress and the charisma to create an even stronger executive branch. Bush – flaws and all – created a Presidency that he could work like possibly only FDR before him. He brought great added power to the office. That isn’t the founding father’s vision. It is their nightmare. On Wednesday’s speech Obama said, “the most serious financial crisis in generations”…really? You read the above. No, you weren’t parked in gas lines for hours like I was in ‘73 but like Stossel says, “Give me a break.”

ADDENDUM:

I thought this oil price graph may add some perspective. I lived through the ‘73 oil crunch with stagflation. I also remember the first gulf war and the spike that occurred there. I have to say both were met with far more gnashing of teeth than even Obama can portray. The stagflation part brought about even worse economic times and Carter reveled in our perceived slide and his solution was to tighten your belt and look forward to continued sliding.. That was the era when Japan was going to own the U.S. outright. There’s no arguing that we are in a rough patch. But, we have a sound and productive economy outside the financial sector. That does need repair but you can’t even describe this rough patch with the term depression. We may hit a recession blip but have to trust the underlying economy.

——————

There are certainly things that need addressed. But, don’t you wonder if either candidate is projecting the right picture or reasoned solutions. I don’t care which side you tend toward; neither is offering much more than a pig in a poke.

——————-

Six national banks have released 180-billion into the marketplace. If you want something to worry about worry about inflation and which candidate is going to contribute to it most. Bush has – without a doubt. Is the guy who want to spend more going to take care addressing debt. Can he do that with added taxes earmarked for social programs that don’t contribute to the GNP? And, I’m not saying the other side is ahead in this argument. That remains why I’m on record for liking folks like Barney Frank who’s more a fiscal conservative in his approach while sharing concern for those less fortunate.  Were he from a more conservative state he might have been a Rockefeller Republican.

]]> http://pokerworks.com/blogs/jkprevo/2008/09/20/sense/feed/ http://pokerworks.com/blogs/jkprevo/2008/09/18/my-bad-iii/ http://pokerworks.com/blogs/jkprevo/2008/09/18/my-bad-iii/#comments Thu, 18 Sep 2008 20:06:53 +0000 jkprevo http://pokerworks.com/blogs/jkprevo/?p=883 I have Fuel55 to thank for sending me to this bit of silliness. We’ve moved from tournament to ring here. And the highest of high stakes to boot. It is a session which features Tom Dwan (Durr) of forum fame and infamy in the link Fuel points us at.

We all have our off days. The one for Durr was epic. I’ve watched a reasonable amount of high stakes games. One might be amazed at what some of the players reasonably promote in such games. It is not for the faint of heart in any case.

http://felttube.com/viewPhoto.php?photo_id=1184&title=patrik_antonius_vs_durrrr

The thing that high stakes can often prove is that it doesn’t always follow good poker any more than it is all wizzing contests. Really big games happen at FullTilt on a regular basis with pots the size of a fully loaded Cadillac Escalade. They happen over limit, no-limit, and often at an Omaha table – along with Hold’em play. There are certain pros that populate 3 or 4 tables with a 100K or so in front of them – often waiting for heads up action. I’ve seen Patrik at those on a regular basis. Durr is a less frequent participant.

Why does Fuel love 55? Well one thing about it is that it is easier to get away from without excessive pain than say AA.

http://felttube.com/viewVideo.php?video_id=250&title=Patrik_Antonius_vs_Present_500_1K_NLH_June_30_2008

So stop by Fuel55 and share his 1 in 100 hand moments. You’ll see that above and there you aren’t that far from some of those that play the bigger game. Stakes really don’t matter ; humiliation is humiliation, regardless. And we all sit on both sides of that felt from time to time.

ADDENDUM:

The congress has finally joined the energy action. The Democrats figured out the Republicans might be on to something and are coming up with an energy plan that they hope will be vetoed – if they can get it passed. Back in ‘my era’ it was said that energy was on the decline and we were running out. The facts quoted could give that credence. It is easy to quote bad or incomplete facts. Both side are doing it. To understand it better and as a preamble to my weekend post, give this article a read.