Maudie at PokerWorks

About a month ago, give or take, I replaced several of the light bulbs in my home with compact flurescent light bulbs (I didn’t do it to “save the world” - I believe it’s human folly and hubris to think we have the power to change Mother Nature’s mind, as it were - I did it because I was tired of changing burned out light bulbs and to put a little dent in my electric bill).

The bulbs in my bathroom have a sunrise effect when I flip the switch. At first they are dim and then it gradually gets brighter. Now how, you may be wondering, does the wattage in my bathroom relate to poker?

It doesn’t, except as a metaphor for the “compact flurescent light bulb” moment I had recently regarding luck in poker - specifically Hold-em.

It was this - there is no luck in poker.

Yup. That’s what I said. There is no luck in poker. It’s a falacy that the four outer your opponent spiked on the river to beat your way ahead hand was good luck for him and bad luck for you.

Let me ’splain.

Say you have KK and your opponent calls your preflop raise from under the gun with Q-9 offsuit. Right now you are a little better than 85% percent to win. Your opponent only 14%.

The flop comes 8-9-2 rainbow. You drop a smidge to 80% for a win, your opponent’s odds rise to 20%. You’re still way ahead, though. You bet out and your opponent re-raises. You push and he calls.

The turn is a ten. Another slight adjustment to your chances vs. his chances brings them to 79.55%/20.45%. Your opponent has four nine outs - less than 10% 19.6% to hit one of them for the win*.

And hit one of them he does. A jack comes out on the river and the monster pot is pushed to him.

“Lucky catch,” you mutter. But was it? I say no. Remember you were an 80% (plus or minus) favorite in this hand. That means you were also a 20% dog. I contend that the “lucky” spike on the river was merely that one in five times your big pocket pair is doomed to get cracked, given the circumstances of that particular hand.

The way I see it, the only way luck can factor into a hand is if you get an eyelash in your eye halfway through the hand, forcing you to remove your glasses which causes you to misread the board and you muck a straight flush because you thought your opponent had a higher flush.

That’s your opponent’s good luck and your incredibly donkish bad luck, in my most humble opinion. Discuss amongst yourselves…

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* Corrected from original post - I overlooked the hidden outs. Your opponent has four jacks, three queens and two nines any of which will give him the winning hand.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, July 10th, 2007 at 11:26 pm and is filed under Uncategorized.