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Often, when playing a big field, low buy in online tournaments at PokerStars or Full Tilt Poker, the money will become so shallow at the end of a tournament that you will feel compelled to make a mathematically correct call even though your stack size dictates that you should probably fold. How do you know when you should fold or call in these situations?

Here is a hand that will help explain the thought processes you should be evaluating in these types of situations. This is late in a 24K guaranteed tournament at Full Tilt. We are already in the money and there is not a big prize jump until you get to the end of the tournament.

I am in late position with J-10 off suit and raise to 4000 total with the blinds at 800-1600. I have 27K in chips to start the hand. The big blind moves all in for 13K total. There are several things to consider. First, the range of hands that he could be pushing here is wider than a typical player because I raised from a steal position. That being said, I am probably going to be a 3:2 or 2:1 dog to almost any hand he has except for a smaller pair (possible) or two smaller cards (not completely out of the ordinary). I have to call 9K to win approximately 20K or 2.2:1 on my money. If I fold, I have 23K which is getting me close to the danger zone... I'd have 14x the BB. If I call and lose, I have 13K in chips, 8x the BB. If I call and win I have 41K or 26x the BB.

There is not that big of a difference between 14x and 8x the BB, although with 14x I can still ‘first to act raise’ and fold to a re-raise, but it's getting close, and with the rapid increase in blinds, in these tournaments, it won't be for long. At 26x the BB, I've put myself in much better position to make it deep, and this is why it is often correct to "overvalue the math" and even though it sucks to play this hard and have to make this kind of call, it is "winning poker."

The second consideration is that if you are going to fold hands like J-10 and Q-10 to re-raises when you are getting 2:1 or better on your money, and the action is closed (meaning your opponent is all in), you should probably not be raising with that type of hand in the first place. In tournament poker this is not possible. The reality is you cannot just sit back and wait for pairs and big aces... you'll end up anteing/blinding off.

In these situations, you should do a quick analysis of three things:

1) If you fold, what is your stack size in relation to the blinds?
2) If you call and lose, what is your stack size in relation to the blinds?
3) If you call and win, what is your stack size in relation to the blinds?

If the difference between 1 and 2 is minimal (as was the case in the above example) and the difference between 1, 2, and 3 is significant (which was the case in the above example) calling is correct if you are getting 2:1 or better for the call. (1.75:1 is about the threshold for these calls, anything at 1.5:1 or less should be an easy fold with marginal hands).

Another thing to consider is that tournament poker is about the long term, not one given tournament. Is survival important? Absolutely... but in the long term, winning is more important than survival.

And here is where the math comes out strongest: Getting 2:1 on your money on a hand you are a 3:2 dog.

Let's take an example:

You have to call 10,000 to win 20,000.

3 times you will lose 10,000 = -30,000
2 times you will win 20,000 = +40,000

Profit for the 5 hands == +10,000

That looks like a pretty +EV play to me.

Bump it up to 2.25:1 (which is what it was here) on a hand that you are a 3:2 dog.

You have to call 10,000 to win 22,500.

3 times you will lose 10,000 = -30,000
2 times you will win 22,500 = 45,000

Profit for the 5 hands = +15,000

This might be a bit much to explain the reasoning behind it, but if you make these calls consistently in shallow money situations, over the long run you will come out ahead, especially since it means you will be getting deeper in tournaments as a result of your increased stack size.

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