PokerWorks

Most poker players at least have a definition for “odds,” and many know that there are different types of odds; the odds you will make your hand, pot odds, and implied odds, but that doesn't mean that they understand the definitions or how to use them to make a decision.

We all know players like these:

I don't recall his name. So, I'll call him Joe. We frequented the same card room in Las Vegas for a while and he often commented. “Odds, I don't need no stinking odds.” When I asked him how he decided to call if he had a draw and he replied, “If the pot is small, I fold. If the pot is real big, I call.”

The other player I'll call Jim to protect the name of the innocent. (I want to keep him that way.) Often when Jim calls a pot sized bet on the turn, he'll comment, “I'm getting the right odds to call. The actual pot odds are, 2:1, and often his draw is 4:1 or worse.

Joe is almost oblivious, but understands the concept and applies it correctly even if he his too drunk to add 2 + 2. Jim on the other hand calculates his odds correctly but has no idea how to apply them to a decision. But this isn't about players like Joe and Jim. This is about a whole different set of players. I tend to see more of these live, and in home games, than at an online poker site. These guys don't make the calls getting the wrong odds, they actually make the bets and raises to give themselves the wrong odds.

We happen to have a player in one of our local home games, (I'll call him Killer.) that has been on an extended hot streak for the past few weeks. He isn’t the only one, but he is probably the best example of “defying the odds.” If Killer has a high pair, top pair or over pair, he will make a minimum or small bet/raise to keep his opponents in the hand. Often he offers them more than ample pot/implied odds to make a call with even the most speculative of hands.

For example: I have seen him bet $10 into a $200 pot with top pair, when there is a flush or straight draw on the flop. On the other hand, when Killer flops a flush draw he will push all-in into a very small pot giving himself only 1-1.2:1 odds on his draw which is 2:1 against.

The recent hot streak has made many of the players gun shy and they look for reasons to fold, and often fail to make the proper play. Most memories only last a few weeks and they have forgotten how much Killer lost last year. They fail to call his all-ins, and often muck their draws to his small bets, and in poker you cannot win if you surrender every pot. I use Killer as an example but at least 25% of the players in the local home games here don't ignore the odds. They defy them.

I know they provide the basis for my +EV but if you think the players on your favorite poker site are nuts you are mistaken. Online, at BoDog, or Party Poker you may run into players like Joe and Jim, but you seldom encounter “Killer” clones anywhere but at the play money tables online. (I know several that play on Full Tilt Poker, but they usually don’t stay long.) Even the poker players in the low limit and micro games fail to play with the abandon of Killer, spitting in the eye of the poker god. Many poker players think the worst players in the world are on the Internet, but there are a lot of killers in home games all over the world.

In Hold’em, the odds are always the same. You don't have to calculate them for every hand. Below is a list of the most of the most common situations, and of course after the flop you can use Poker Rule #42 to calculate your odds for any draw.

Pre Flop

Pocket Pair 6%
Pocket Aces .45%
Suited Cards 24%
Connectors 16%

Flop

Trips or better from pocket pair 12%
A pair from 2 unpaired pocket cards 32%
Flush, holding two suited cards 1%
Straight, holding connectors (45-J10) 1%
Flush draw, holding two suited cards 11%
Straight Draw, 8 outs, 11%
Pair using one of your hole cards 29%
Two Pair (using both of your hole cards) 2%

Turn & River (*Rule 42 Estimate)

Flush 35% (36%)
Straight, 8 outs 31% (32%)
Straight 4 outs 16% (16%)
Backdoor 4%
Two Pair (using both of your hole cards) 13% (12%)
Trips with one in your hand 8% (8%)
Top Pair from 2 over cards 24% (24%)

Turn or River: Odds are a slightly higher on River than Turn.

Flush on the turn 19% (18%)
Straight on the turn 17% (16%)
Inside Straight Draw 8% (8%)
Two Pair (using both of your hole cards) 6% (6%)
Trips with one in your hand 4% (4%)
Top Pair from 2 over cards 13% (12%)

Hand against Hand

Small Pocket pair vs. Higher Pocket pair 19%
Off suited over cards vs. lower pocket pair 45%
Suited over cards vs. lower pocket pair 47%
Dominated hand (e.g. A-J vs. A-K) 24%
Badly dominated suited hand (e.g. A-A vs. A-10s) 13%
Badly dominated hand (e.g. A-A vs. A-10o) 7%
Unsuited under cards vs. unsuited over cards (e.g. J-10 vs. A-K) 37%
Suited under cards vs. unsuited over cards (e.g. J-10s vs. A-K) 41%

* You should note that the Rule of 42 is most accurate when there are few outs. When number of outs exceeds 10 the estimate tends to be a bit low for one card but high for two cards.

Good Luck
jb