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Dicing with the Devil

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With all of the "expert" commentary on TV poker these days, we've all heard it a least once a week; "The pot is giving him the right odds to call." The statement may be correct, but when faced with that situation in tournament play, sometimes the player should reconsider. In a cash game, calling for pot odds is almost always correct, but in tournament play when you must put your stack in jeopardy, sometimes you should give up on the "proper" odds.

Let's look at a similar proposition based on the roll of a single dice. The die has 6 sides and the chance that you will roll a specific number is 1 in 6 or 5:1 against. In our proposition we will pay you 6:1 if you can roll a 6. In any normal situation, like a cash game, you should be willing to take this bet, and ask if you can roll several dice at the same time. Generally for every 6 rolls of the die you should lose 5 bets, -5, and win 6 bets 1 time for +6 bets. This provides a positive expectation of 1/6 of a bet every time you roll a die. (That is a 16% edge.) But there is a catch: you can only roll the die, one time. (You are in a tournament.) Is it still a good bet? Well, yes but it might not be a good gamble in this situation.

Maybe we can improve on the example. You are 20 years old and the Devil shows up with the same dice. He honestly tells you that you will live to be 100 years old. He gives you the opportunity to roll the die for the remaining 80 years, but he offers you 7:1. If you win he will increase you life by 540 years to 560 years and he promises to visit you at least one more time. Definitely a good bet but is it a good gamble? Now let's take it one step further. The Devil revisits you at the age of 90, and offers you the same proposition with the promise to revisit you if you win. Now you can win an additional 70 years to 170, plus another shot sometime in the future. It is still a good bet. In fact even better, this time it might be a good gamble.

The Devil's proposition best parallels the tournament situation and illustrates the increased tendency to gamble as a player's stack becomes short. Of course as the tournament reaches the end game, luck and good living could have already given you a longer life expectancy and if so, you might forego gambling. So always weigh your survival expectancy before you push all-in and roll the die, because the pot is giving the right odds. Is it in your best interest to, "Dice with the Devil?"

GL

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