PokerWorks

One of my favorite games to play is the 210 frequent player point turbo satellite to the Sunday 200k tournament on Poker Stars.  It is a sit and go format, with two tables of ten players each, six of whom earn seats in the $10 + $1 20,000 plus player extravaganza.

Here’s the way I break it down:  5,000 FPP has a value of $50 on Poker Stars, meaning that you can cash in those points for a bonus that you would then have to play off at the tables to earn.  I am always on the lookout for opportunities to better the return on those 5,000 points.   I used to shoot at the 500 FPP satellites to the Sunday Million, but, with a prize of $215, only 1 of every 27 players cashes in.  If you are able to match the proper odds, you will spend 13,500 points for your $215 buy-in, which, by the way, is no different than if you used player points to buy in to the Sunday Million directly.  The problem is that it is very difficult to do much better than cashing once out of 27 times, due to the usual land mines in a no limit tourney.

Now take a look at the 210 FPP tourney.  Thirty per cent of the players cash in, which means that your expectation is to earn $66 for every 4,200 points that you spend, if you are right on the average.  Notice that this rate is actually the same as that of the 500 FPP tourney.  However, my experience is that it is much easier to cash at a considerably higher rate in this type of satellite.  Personally, I have made the money in 75% of the ones I have played thus far (12 of 16).  This means that my investment of 3,360 points has yielded $132 in tournament dollars, which can be used in the Sunday 200K, or placed back in my account and used for any tournament of my choosing.  Extrapolating that win rate over 13,500 points would create $528, more than double the expectation of the 500 FPP Sunday Million satellite or the direct buy-in method.

So…the next question you might be asking is how I have achieved that kind of win rate.  What I have found is that a common feature of these satellites is that players tend to panic when their stacks drop to around 1,000 chips, regardless of the blind levels.  They look to push with any decent hand, often right after losing a high percentage of their chips.  These situations are ripe for exploiting, and if your stack is comfortable for the blind level, you can often put yourself in a close to unbeatable position fairly early in the game by picking off these over-eager players.

The key is to play your own stack with patience.  Despite the fact that the blinds are going up every five minutes, you have more time than you think.  Remember that there are two basic ways to cash in this satellite.  First, and most comfortably, you can build up a stack of about 5,000, and just coast on home (5,000 chips will be the average when 6 players are left).  Secondly, you can stay under the radar while other players knock each other out, and limp on in as a winner.  Remember that in the end game, when the blinds and antes get up in the 200-400-25 and 300-600-50 range, all you need to be is sixth out of six to be a winner.  In this second scenario, one of the most important things to do is to look at your opponent’s stacks, and see how long it will be before they are blinded off in relation to you.  If there are one or two players who will be gone before you unless they win a hand, just sit tight and wait them out.  If they manage to grab a pot, then you will be put in the position of having to win one as well, but if not, you can let the big stacks do the work for you.

In a recent tournament, I was very comfortably situated with about 4,000 chips, and we were down to seven players.  I was in 3rd place at the time, with the two chip leaders far ahead of the field.  The short stack had 1,400 chips and was in the big blind, at the 200-400-25 level.  I raised from 2nd position to 1,600 with pocket nines, which would have put the big blind all-in.  My intention was to end the tourney right there if he called.  However, the button was the big stack at the table, and he smartly re-raised, which would have put me all-in.  The big blind folded, and I surveyed the table.  Despite feeling that my hand was better than the button’s (he had been regularly raising almost every hand), there were still two players who would have shorter stacks than mine if I chose to fold, and who, with the blinds about to go up again, would be in jeopardy of elimination within one orbit.  With my tournament life on the line if I called, I chose to fold the hand and let the odds work in my favor.  The short stack was eliminated one orbit later, and I snuck into the money with 400 chips left.

Looking back, I could have accomplished my original goal of putting the big blind in jeopardy simply by calling the hand.  That way, if the button raised, I could release my hand without making much of a dent in my stack, thereby making cashing a more likely probability.  

The key principle to remember is that sixth place is the same as first place.  You will find in nearly every game that there are players who completely forget this notion.  The two big stacks will suddenly be slugging it out with one another, despite the fact that they could both effortlessly cash just by staying out of each other’s way.  Don’t get caught up in a spitting match with another big stack.  Calmly protect your hard-earned position, and help eliminate the short stacks, thus insuring another $11 of tournament money winding up in your account.

See you at the tables!

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