Most of the strength of Aces is really based on their chance to win the pot with little or no improvement. Once A-A falls behind, it is simply another pocket pair with just two outs, and only an 8% chance of improving on the turn and river. There is no need to lament losing with Aces; it is going to happen - often. When you go all-in with aces you are committing yourself to see all seven cards. There is nothing you can do to affect the outcome of the hand now; neither cussing nor praying works.
If you don't believe aces are very vulnerable, spend some time in the No Fold'em Hold'em games of southern California. When I spent most of my off time in Las Vegas I remember the tales, told around the tables, of the California poker; the money, the action and the bad players. We knew they were bad, because most of our positive expectation resulted when we skinned them sitting at our table. There was gold in those hills for anyone willing to chance it. Of course, most of those who tried failed and returned with bad beat stories that even impressed the most skeptical of us.
Finally one long weekend, when I hit I-95 at Barstow, instead of turning east toward Las Vegas, I turned west toward L.A. When I entered the rather small room (10-12 tables), in Apple Valley, several things became apparent immediately:
• It was different, real different. They ate at the tables, among other things.
• There was money, lots of money and I hadn't brought enough. A typical $2/4 Hold'em table often had $1500-2000 in chips on it. The pots could be larger than the total number of chips you might find at a table in Las Vegas.
• I knew many of the players, by name and with few exceptions, they were fish.
• This was going to be a real good weekend.
Even then I understood the value of a big stack, and my $400 would still be a small stack in the $3/6 game. I put my name on the list for $2/4, and soon had a seat. I actually walked before I was busted, but I did not even stay the night. It was brutal. The next morning I was in the office running simulations on all the computers. This game is beatable I just need to find out how. Two weeks and several million hands later, I took my second shot. I did well and armed with my new No Fold'em strategy, I did some pretty profitable prospecting in those hills.
During my visits back to California, I don't remember ever visiting the poker room when I didn't see two, three or even four Vegas regulars sitting at the tables. Even those I didn't know were easy to recognize. They would be sitting at the end of the table, usually the 3 seat and have the remnants of a buy-in, stacked neatly in front of them. They were sitting there like an old stereo commercial with their unkempt hair blown back in the wind and a glassy, dazed look in their eyes. On most you could ad a thought bubble that read, "There's all this money on the table, and I can't get any of it."
I also saw this scenario play out many times and it explains why those Stone Cold Rock Las Vegas locals were getting killed, in California. I saw it happen over and over again:
Our hero sits patiently waiting for a good premium hand. (His stack is dwindling 2.5 big blinds per round.) In early position he finally picks up A-A. He raises. The player immediately to his left shouts, "That's what I've been waiting for. I raise." The next player comments, "Let's play a big pot. I cap it." Around the table you hear the other players comment on the how big the pot will be. They all call. There are 39 small bets (The rake is approximately one small bet.) in the pot.
The flop comes with no Ace. Everything that can be out there is. If there is a flush draw or straight draw, someone has it. You can expect several pocket pairs, and one or two players usually have paired the board. It is checked to our hero/victim and he bets, to protect his aces. He is now offering 40:1 pot odds.
• Flush/Straight draws are 2:1 by the river.
• Inside Straight about 5:1 by the river
• A pair to 2 pair or trips 5:1 by the river
• Pocket pair to trips 12:1 by river
• A runner runner flush is only 23:1
Anyone that got a piece of the flop calls, everyone else folds. If there is a raise, he is drawing to a pocket pair at 23:1, but he is getting great pot odds. Usually 3 or 4 others would call a raise even if it was two bets cold. They were getting 20:1.
The turn brings no Ace. Now the bets double. Our forlorn hero/victim pushes out a big bet. Now the pot is only offering 22:1
• Flush/Straight draws are about 5:1
• Inside Straight about 11:1
• A pair to 2 pair or trips 9:1
• Pocket pair to trips 12:1 on river
• A runner runner flush is impossible. (Thankfully)
The picture should be clear now. They all call. A nine hits on the river with no flush or straight possible. One last time our hapless victim pushes out a bet. Fold. Fold. The little old lady, (Who our hero/victim has beaten many times in L.V.), in the 8 seat looks at her hand one last time and announces, "I raise." Our lamb considers the pot odds, and calls. She rolls over 9-3 off suit for two pair and asks for a couple of racks to stack all her new chips.
In the same scenario, other hands like K-K and Q-Q brought on some even more horrible situations. The California players did believe that any Ace deserved to go to the river. When the Ace hit, pocket Kings or Queens were toast.
The California players cooperated in crushing the Las Vegas interlopers. They weren't cheating and it wasn't explicit collusion, but that style of game definitely worked well to destroy the bankrolls of the Vegas pretenders.
Does this mean that I didn't like Aces? Of course not, they are still the best starting hand. but I did address them differently and I always knew they could be beaten. So next time your American Airlines gets shot down, write it off to your promotional budget and wait. Wait until next time.
Good Luck
jb