PokerWorks

The burning topic that new players contemplate when they take their first few bad beats is always, it must be all luck, right? Well, that's entirely untrue. When you get your chips in with the best of it and someone calls with a gut shot straight draw and hits, there's nothing you can do about that.

Except think of the math:

There are poker sites that display your chances of winning the hand on an all-in and if you are a huge favorite but take that 2-4% bad beat, of course you did the right thing. Those circumstances occur though and as most of the pros will say...'you might not remember the big winning hands you had, but you always remember the ones you took a beat on when you were ahead.' This basically reflects the notion that over time, if you play long enough and frequently enough, the odds will take over and turn out in your favor. It's a simple concept of probability and statistics.

For example, if two people are prop betting on flipping a coin and the last ten times you flipped, the coin it ended up heads, then some people will believe they have a better chance of winning the next flip if they choose tails. Incorrect! Over time, the percentage of heads to tails results will always be 50/50. Meaning, on the eleventh flip, you have no better chance of winning if you guess tails than if you guess heads. It's just the way it works...it only matters what you start off with.

Another example that many players get confused about is chasing draws, thinking that after the flop, you have two more cards to go, so your chances are pretty good to hit and make your hand. Unfortunately, most of the time, you're chance of winning the hand only goes down as the hand proceeds if you decide to chase. At best, the percentage stays relatively equal. Again, it's all what you start with. Some very new players will even think that since there are less cards in the deck, after the flop and turn are shown, that their percentages actually go up. If that's how you judge your percentage, you're just not understanding the math.

To explain, say you're at the grocery store and there are four cartons of milk left and one is spoiled. Your chances of choosing the spoiled carton are 1/4. If someone next to you takes one of the cartons, then your chances increase to 1/3, right? Nope. It's what you start with. There were four cartons to start, so your chances, even if there is only one carton left, are still 1/4 to choose the spoiled carton. Telling some people that gets their heads shaking in disbelief, but it's true.

People get lucky in poker all the time and we all read about it on the internet and see some prime examples on television. Point being, if your thought processes are correct, over time, you'll be a winner, even if you hear about some players having runs of weeks or months of bad streaks. It happens. Skill will rule out over luck eventually.

So keep plugging away and don't get frustrated with a few beats. Remember your percentages and your bankroll will continue to grow.

Be sure to wear your lucky socks when you sit down to play next time. Follow-up article to come.