PokerWorks

It's Not All About The Cards

The purpose of the previous assignment was to show you a couple of things:

1)    The flop usually misses people and the pot goes to the post-flop bettor.
2)    By being consistent with your bet amounts you disguise the strength of your hand.
3)    By being consistent with the half pot bet amount (or something relatively close to it), you can fold those hands that you get reraised on at a lesser cost to your stack then the typical "pot" bet, you show more strength than the weak minimum bet and thus get more respect, but at the same time by being consistent with it, people will continually test you, call you down (or raise you) in improper situations and thus build up the pots for you.
4)    By betting and raising you can define your opponents hand rather than guess about it by checking and/or calling. Additionally, it gives you ways to win the pot when you might not have the best hand, and gives you opportunities to draw cheaply after your initial bet/raise.
5)    Show you various ways to play different hands post-flop given your position, your holding and your opponents play.

Being consistent with your bet amounts is important, but understand that there will be times you will want to vary your bets based upon your opponents. We've talked about this in previous sections, but generally you want to bet the least amount possible when you don't want a call (but be careful here as your opponents may pick up on this – generally, the half pot bet is good for this because it is the amount we normally bet and it doesn't cost us too much if our opponent decides to test us) and as much as possible when you do want a call (again, be careful with this – a savvy opponent will notice that you are varying your bet. If you are going to do so, you must do so with your lesser hands as well. Generally speaking, you're best off betting a standard amount unless you are positive that your opponent will fold or call a different amount.)

I wanted to conclude this article with a discussion some students and I had regarding the half pot bet. This amount is just one I use to provide an example. Your standard bet could be less, or it could be more. The principles, however, are the same.

Student #1:

This has come up in the past and we never really got a full debate on it.

THE 1/2 POT BET:

Advantages:

1) It sows Confusion, and can be perceived as a trap bet. See postscript below.
2) It is usually "big enough" to win the pot if the other players are on weak draws.
3) It is often "big enough" to induce a flat call (or a fold) if they have a so-so hand.
4) It saves you money when someone comes over the top with a much stronger hand. Pot and Pot-and-a-half can be extremely expensive (and what do you bet on the turn if you bet pot on flop and are smooth called). Most of the time you get the same info out of a 1/2 pot bet as you do from a pot bet.
5) It nets you big money later if they perceive a 1/2 pot bet as weak. i.e., you can fold to an over the top bet this hand, and later bet out 1/2 pot with a set.

Disadvantages:

1) It can be perceived as weak, and cause an over the top bet by a weaker holding. Depending on the player, you may have to fold some winning hands here.
2) It allows draws to stay in for modest amount.

My response:

I don't see #2 as a disadvantage either. Anytime you bet 1/2 the pot and are heads-up, a person is getting 3:1 on their money to call. If they have a flush draw they are 5:1 (they will hit it 19% of the time) to hit it on the next card. If they have a straight draw they are 6:1 (they will hit it 17% of the time) to hit it on the next card. I want people on draws calling. It's different when there is more than one person in the pot.

If # people in addition to you, and player X calls, then player Y is getting:

Where #=

2 --> Y is getting 4:1
3 --> Y is getting 5:1
4 --> Y is getting 6:1

As for #1, I completely disagree with the exception of the first three rounds of a tournament when there are only two or three people who see the flop (i.e. the blinds are 25/50 and 4 people see the flop, pot is 200 and you bet 100). There is nothing weak about betting 4000 when the pot is 8000. And if my opponent wants to think that, then as Papi said, he's playing into my hands.

So to me the disadvantage would be is it prices people in when there is multi-way pots. So with that being said, I still believe the 1/2 pot bet on the flop is correct, but I might price my opponent out of the pot on the turn if the draw card does not come. Heads up though, 1/2 pot is almost always a sufficient and correct bet.

I also added later:

I'm not saying I bet half the pot all the time. I don't. If a half pot bet will be 3/4 of an opponent's stack, I'll bet his stack. Sometimes if I flop a draw, I'll bet 1/2 of my opponent's stack (if I have him well covered) that way if he moves all in I am forcing myself to call. But generally speaking in most "standard" situations I like being consistent with my bet amount and half pot works the best for me (and mills, if they are drawing they are paying 3:1 to draw when a flush draw is 4:1 to hit on the next card and a straight draw is 5:1 to hit on the next card - I want those calls) and it keeps my opponent's off-balance because I'll bet this amount when I flop a set or full house as well as when I have nothing (note the above example where I would bet 1/2 my opponent's stack if I am on a draw - well I'd also do the same with a made hand).

Student #2's response:

I too have moved to the 1/2 pot bet from the pot bet and 2/3 pot bet and found it to be very effective. Here is why (I believe) it is an effective strategy on avg/fish players at lower buyins:

These people do not notice what percentage of the pot your bet is. They evaluate the decision based on their cards and their stack. All the time, unbelievably, I see people call 3x or 4x raises preflop and then fold to a min bet on the flop getting 8:1, 10:1 or better. This is also true preflop because they do not notice whether your bet is 3x, 4x, etc., of BB.

The best way to characterize this is that we think a 3x BB bet preflop or a pot bet post flop is a "consistent" bet. However, as the blinds go up or the pot size changes, your actual bet amount changes. Most of your opponents do not notice any "consistency" to your betting. All they see is their cards and how much they like them and whether they like them enough to be involved.

Sometimes they notice how much the bet is relative to their own stack. Sometimes they see a big pot and decide they'll gamble to "win that big ole pot and double up". Sometimes they see a small pot and decide it's not worth playing for. Sometimes they go all-in with 5000 chips to win 75 in dead money. Who the hell knows. I do know they don't generally notice whether your bet is 1/2 pot, 1/3 pot, 2x pot or whatever.

So, as has been said, if a donkey is going to call they will call regardless of bet size, and if they are going to fold they will fold regardless of bet size. The same is true if they are going to raise.

So, 1/2 pot bets save you chips. The net effect is almost always the same as a larger bet.

It is true that these are generalizations. It is still situational. There are players that will think a 1/2 pot bet represents weakness and players that think a pot overbet represents a bluff/weakness. If you get to play these players a lot or you are at a table with them for a while you can get to know this and play them in a specific manner.

However, for general play without much knowledge of my opponent I just assume they have no knowledge of pot odds, bet sizes, etc. and are playing their stack size and their cards. I have concluded 1/2 pot bets save me chips when I may need to get out, without really having any disadvantage when I am sure I'm ahead.

One other way to look at it is like this:

Take 1000 hands where you raise preflop, get called and are first to act post flop. If you fire out a bet some percentage of the time your opponent will fold, some percentage of the time you will be called, and some percentage of the time you will be raised back.

Do you think these percentages will vary much based on your bet amount? I have concluded that they won't.

Opponents that are going to call or fold will call or fold to a 1/2 pot bet or pot bet without much variance I would suspect. If their decision is very close they may go one way or the other based on your bet size but also may call or fold based on "a feeling" or if their dog tells them to call or whatever.

Sure, you may get raised back a couple more times because someone thinks your 1/2 pot bet is weak. However, a couple times you may have been raised back your opponent thinks you may be trapping with that 1/2 pot bet and calls or folds. So I think the variance here is very small also.

Do not start thinking in a short-term, results-oriented manner based on the outcome of one or a couple or a few hands. Say a couple times you bet 1/2 pot and a guy goes over the top or he calls and hits his card on the turn and you think "well if I had bet more that wouldn't have happened and that 1/2 pot bet thing sucks and I'm going to bet more from now on". Firstly you don't know if the outcome would have been any different if you had bet more, and even if that was true in that particular situation you just have to grin and bear it and think about how many chips you have saved over the long term with 1/2 pot bets vs. the few extra you lost in this one situation.

And one last comment from me:

I think a lot of you might be confused as to how I apply/use the 1/2 pot bet.

For me, it's my standard FLOP bet. After the flop, I will vary my bet dependent on the cards I hold, what the board is, and who my opponent is and my read of him. But generally, I'll bet 1/2 pot every time on the flop when I am the first one betting - as my continuation bet, as my bet when I have the nuts, as my bluff bet.

I think that by being consistent in your flop bet, you make it hard for your opponent to put you on any range of hands. But I do think that after the flop it should be varied dependent on the hand dynamics. When the money is shallow and/or a 1/2 pot bet is a substantial percentage of my stack, I would not recommend the 1/2 pot bet on the flop. I think shallow money betting is a completely different animal, dependent upon a number of factors such as your stack size, it's relation to the blinds, and your opponents stack size. Good things to discuss though and I'll make sure to address these items in my post-flop betting lessons (I'd previously just told people to bet 1/2 pot regardless, but I think I need to get a little more in depth here - as if that's possible).

Probably overkill there, but I think it's important you see all of that to understand the concept behind it.  It's been thought about a lot. Up next, we'll do another post-flop assignment, one that will force you into playing a lot of hands after the flop.