PokerWorks

It's Not All About The Cards

In the previous article , I talked about one critical component you must evaluate when it comes to the end of the tournament and short-handed play. However, that is not the only thing that must be looked at when making a decision. Stack dynamics, or the relation of your stack size in comparison to your opponents, is just as, or maybe more important than depth of money dynamics. Specifically, it affects what hands you can play and against whom you can play them.

There are three distinct relationships between stack sizes.

1) A player who can bust you without risking a large percentage of their stack (meaning over 1/2 their stack). This is the most dangerous player at the table because they can and often will put you to the test for your entire stack because even if they lose the hand they won't go broke. Let's look at an example final table and see which players would meet this criteria for each given chip stack.

Level XV: 500 Ante 1,500/3,000 Blinds (500 Minimum Chip)
Average Stack: 60,000 (10,000 starting chips)
Remaining Players: 10 (60 started)
Seat 1 : starts with 11,500
Seat 2 : starts with 47,500
Seat 3 : starts with 41,000
Seat 4 : starts with 34,000
Seat 5 : starts with 119,500
Seat 6 : starts with 81,000
Seat 7 : starts with 50,500
Seat 8 : starts with 46,000
Seat 9 : starts with 68,500
Seat 10 : starts with 104,000

For Seat 1 - every player at the table falls under #1.
For Seats 2,3,4 and 7 - Seat 5 and 10 fall under #1
For Seats 5,6,9 and 10 - no players fall under #1

Obviously the two big stacks 5 and 10 are at the biggest advantage here. This is where you want to be. Seats 6 and 9 are in the middle ground, seats 5 and 10 can't necessarily move them off a hand with just sheer pressure because their stack would represent a significant portion of their own stack. In the same regard, Seats 6 and 9 while having substantially larger stacks than 2,3,4 and 7, have the same problem - any all-in call by those four players would cripple them. Seat 1 clearly is in the worst position, there is no player he can cripple and it's likely he's going to get called.

2) A player close to or equal to you in chips. This is often where you will see the biggest mistakes made. Players will tangle with players that they have covered, thinking that even if they lose the hand they will still have chips, without failing to recognize the loss to their stack would be so much so that it puts them in the unenviable position of seat 1 above. Looking at the same example from above...

Level XV: 500 Ante 1,500/3,000 Blinds (500 Minimum Chip)
Average Stack: 60,000 (10,000 starting chips)
Remaining Players: 10 (60 started)
Seat 1 : starts with 11,500
Seat 2 : starts with 47,500
Seat 3 : starts with 41,000
Seat 4 : starts with 34,000
Seat 5 : starts with 119,500
Seat 6 : starts with 81,000
Seat 7 : starts with 50,500
Seat 8 : starts with 46,000
Seat 9 : starts with 68,500
Seat 10 : starts with 104,000

Seat 1 - has no player that falls under #2 - this is to be expected since every player falls under #1 for him.

Seat 2, Seat 3, Seat 4, Seat 7, Seat 8 - all meet #2 criteria for each other. Any pot that is an all-in confrontation between these players will either cripple them or eliminate them.
Seat 5 and 10 - meet #2 criteria for each other. This is the biggest thing a big stack needs to address when they are playing a pot at a final table - WHO are their #2 opponents? They need to avoid confrontations with these opponents unless they clearly have the best of it. Too many times you'll see the big stacks trying to take each other on, and this is generally a mistake.

Seat 6 and 9 - meet #2 criteria for each other. While obviously wanting to be careful in avoiding confrontations with 5 and 10, seats 6 and 9 also need to be wary of confronting each other.

3) A player you have well covered (meaning that their stack represents less than 50% of your stack). These are the players you want to be attacking and taking marginal risks against because they are the players who cannot bust you. It's kind of the opposite of #1. Let's look again at our example...

Level XV: 500 Ante 1,500/3,000 Blinds (500 Minimum Chip)
Average Stack: 60,000 (10,000 starting chips)
Remaining Players: 10 (60 started)
Seat 1 : starts with 11,500
Seat 2 : starts with 47,500
Seat 3 : starts with 41,000
Seat 4 : starts with 34,000
Seat 5 : starts with 119,500
Seat 6 : starts with 81,000
Seat 7 : starts with 50,500
Seat 8 : starts with 46,000
Seat 9 : starts with 68,500
Seat 10 : starts with 104,000

Seat 1 - no player meets #3 criteria.
Seats 2,3,4,7,8 - Seat 1 meets #3 criteria
Seat 5 - all players but seat 6,9 and 10 meet #3 criteria
Seat 6 - seat 1, 3, 4 meet #3 criteria
Seat 9 - seat 1 and 4 meet #3 criteria
Seat 10 - all players but seat 5,6 and 9 meet #3 criteria

Now that we have the three different criteria let's look at three examples from an online poker tournament at PokerStars of how these play out:

#1 and #3

Seat 1 : starts with 11,500
Seat 2 : starts with 47,500
Seat 3 : starts with 41,000
Seat 4 : starts with 34,000
Seat 5 : starts with 119,500
Seat 6 : starts with 81,000
Seat 7 : starts with 50,500
Seat 8 : starts with 46,000
Seat 9 : starts with 68,500
Seat 10 : starts with 104,000
Seat 8 : has the dealer button
>>>DEALING HOLE CARDS<<<
Seat 9 posts the small blind 1,500
Seat 10 posts the big blind 3,000
Seat 1 raises 8,000 to 11,000 and is all-in
Seat 2 folds
Seat 3 raises 29,500 to 40,500 and is all-in
Seats 4 through 10 fold
Seat 3's cards were Ks Ad
Seat 1's cards were 4c 4s
>>>DEALING FLOP<<< [ 2h As Jd ]
>>>DEALING TURN<<< [ 6s ]
>>>DEALING RIVER<<< [ 6c ]
Seat 3 wins 31,500 with two pair, aces and sixes

In this example, Seat 1 moves all in. Every player at the table meets #1 criteria, so it's very unlikely that he is going to win the hand without winning a showdown. Seat 3, although short in comparison to the table has Seat 1 in his #3 criteria so can comfortably make this move against Seat 1. This is an easy play based on the stack dynamics. But let's say the following were the case:

Seat 1 : starts with 11,500
Seat 2 : starts with 47,500
Seat 3 : starts with 41,000
Seat 4 : starts with 34,000
Seat 5 : starts with 119,500
Seat 6 : starts with 81,000
Seat 7 : starts with 50,500
Seat 8 : starts with 46,000
Seat 9 : starts with 68,500
Seat 10 : starts with 104,000
Seat 9 posts the small blind 1,500
Seat 10 posts the big blind 3,000
Seat 1 folds
Seat 2 folds
Seat 3 raises 6,000 to 9,000
Seats 4-9 fold
Seat 10 raises 18,000 to 27,000
Seat 3's cards are 4c 4s
Seat 10's cards are Ad Ks

Here the situation is completely different. Seat 3 is the one being put to the test. Now he would have to risk his entire tournament life with 4-4 and what is probably at best a coin flip. If he loses the hand he is out. Seat 10 on the other hand can lose the hand and not lose 1/2 his stack. He is using his stack and position to apply pressure on the shorter stack who will often fold a hand like 4-4 in this situation. This is a classic situation you will often see between a player who faces a player who meets their #1 criteria. Deciding whether to make that call and risking your tournament life is often the difference between winning and losing the tournament. This is a hard call based on the stack dynamics.

#2

Here's a classic #2 confrontation and you'll notice the mistake made by Seat 7.

Seat 2 : starts with 85,000
Seat 3 : starts with 46,000
Seat 5 : starts with 96,000
Seat 6 : starts with 162,500
Seat 7 : starts with 27,000
Seat 8 : starts with 69,500
Seat 9 : starts with 45,500
Seat 10 : starts with 72,000
>>>DEALING HOLE CARDS<<<
Seat 7 posts the small blind 3,000
Seat 8 posts the big blind 6,000
Seat 9 folds
Seat 10 folds
Seat 2 folds
Seat 3 raises 12,000 to 18,000
Seats 5 and 6 fold
Seat 7 raises 8,000 to 26,000 and is all-in
Seat 8 folds
Seat 3 calls 8,000
Seat 7's cards were Tc Ks
Seat 3's cards were Js Kd
>>>DEALING FLOP<<< [ 4h Qs 9s ]
>>>DEALING TURN<<< [ 2h ]
>>>DEALING RIVER<<< [ 8c ]
Seat 3 wins 66,000 with king high

Here Seat 7 should have realized that Seat 3 had put in nearly 40% of his stack and was likely to have a hand that at worst was a flip against KT but in all probability had him beat. Seat 7 had no folding equity here and should have waited for a spot where he could have been the initial aggressor. On the same note, Seat 3 made a mistake by just raising to 18K here since he's obviously not going to (nor should he) fold to a reraise - therefore he should have just moved all-in.

Avoiding confrontations with #2

Here is an example of the 2nd biggest stack at the table not raising in an obvious steal raise situation because the player in the BB is in his #2 category. Against any other player's BB Seat 3 would likely have raised here.

Seat 2 : starts with 18,000
Seat 3 : starts with 169,000
Seat 6 : starts with 252,500
Seat 8 : starts with 52,500
Seat 9 : starts with 30,500
Seat 10 : starts with 81,000
>>>DEALING HOLE CARDS<<<
Seat 3 posts the small blind 4,000
Seat 6 posts the big blind 8,000
Everyone folds to Seat 3
Seat 3's cards are Qd-10s
Seat 3 folds
The power of #1

Here's an example showing the power players have when they are the biggest stack and have everyone in their #1 category.

Seat 2 : starts with 53,000
Seat 3 : starts with 161,000
Seat 6 : starts with 290,000
Seat 8 : starts with 75,500
Seat 10 : starts with 24,000
>>>DEALING HOLE CARDS<<<
Seat's 6, 8 and 10 fold.
Seat 2 calls 5,000
Seat 3's cards are As-3d
Seat 3 raises 149,500 to 159,500 and is all-in
Seat 2 folds

Essentially what stack dynamics does is dictates how you should play based upon the opponent already in the hand or left to act. You should be more willing to raise a players BB if they are in your #2 or #3 category. You should be more willing to call a raise from a player in your #3 category, but fold to a reraise from a player in your #1 and #2 category. If you are a player in everyone's #3 category, you have to realize that if you make a move you are likely going to get called. If you are the big stack, you want to avoid confrontations with players in your #2 category. Instead you should be attacking players in your #3 category.

When you couple stack dynamics with depth of money dynamics, you'll start to get the picture - SELECTIVE (based on the players stack in relation to yours) AGGRESSION (based on the depth of money in relation to blinds) is the key to getting far in short-handed and final table tournament poker. We're now going to move into some more specific discussions of various tournament concepts.