Poker Plays with PokerPeaker - A set isn't golden against a big draw
I'm playing with a full stack at Bodog Poker at a $.10/.25 NL table. I'm dealt 5-5 and I'm sitting one off the button.Someone in front of me raises to .50, a minimum raise, and another guy in front of me raises to .75. This is a strange raise, almost an annoyance raise. There's a third caller, and so I call, hoping to flop a set and hoping that the first guy to act doesn't raise him all-in.
The last guy to act just calls so my gamble pays off.
The flop comes J♥ - K♥ - 5♦. Yippie! And yet in my excitement, I've forgotten to take a hard look at the board.
That hurts me later.
The initial raiser checks. I bet $2 because it's a draw heavy board, and I think he has A-K, so he'll likely call. The second player raises to $4. I raise to $6 because there are too many draws out there, and I'm happy to take down the pot. Plus I just want to see what the other players will do. I think this hand is really interesting.
The fourth player pushes all-in. Wow!
Remember, there was a raise and a re-raise pre-flop, so it's possible someone could have a higher set than me. I look at the board, and I don't think I'm behind here. It's quite possible that the first guy would have K-K and the second guy would have J-J or K-K as well. So I could be beat here. But sometimes you're going to lose money, I think, and so I shove because I really think one has a big pair and the other may have two pair, and the third may have a draw.
To be honest, this is Bodog Poker , and I run into some really wild and crazy players at those tables. This makes me play more aggressively than I would at, say, Poker Stars .
The third player calls, and the fourth player calls. What do you think the other players had?
Here's a hint. This is a situation where I was way behind with my set, even though I had the best hand at the moment. One had J♣-5♣ of clubs, the other re-raiser had K♦ - J♠ and the guy who won the pot had Q♥ -10♥.
Let's take a look at www.pokerstove.com to see where I was in the hand after the flop when I pushed all my chips in the middle.
• J♣ - 5♣ is 0 percent to win at the flop. Ouch. Two pair and he's drawing completely dead.
• The guy with K♦ - J♠ is 13 percent to win at the flop.
• A pair of 5s is 30 percent to win at the flop.
• Q♥ - 10♥, however, is 46 percent to win.
I'm more than a 3-1 dog to win. I'm crushed, in other words, even if I have the best hand at the moment. Sure enough, I couldn't see the other hands at the moment, but I figured I was dead when the 9♥ fell on the turn. I was right.
Lessons learned:
• I love sets. I really do. I've made more money on sets, by far, than any other hand. But this time I probably should have folded.
• Let's look at the pre-flop action. There was a raise and a re-raise and then, after my third re-raise, a push all-in. Given the action after the flop, it's entirely possible I was beaten by a higher set. That's showing incredible strength there. If I wasn't behind, I had to think I was against a pretty big draw at the very least, and possibly two, which meant I was behind anyway.
• Finally, this proves you shouldn't be afraid to shove your chips into the middle with a monster draw like the final player had. You're ahead if you have one. He knew the percentages and, as a result, won a monster pot.
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